Section 126 of the Representation of the People's Act-1951 bans polls (including exit polls) from 48 hours before an election and does cover "electronic media".
But, according to the rulebook, "electronic media" includes radio and television but not mobile phones, leave alone a phone-based app.
So, the WhatsApp groups have taken over, trying to bridge an important demand-supply gap. Taken together, these "polls" throw up curious results, giving a wide variety of outcomes for the same election.
The first of these "poll results" started doing the rounds of WhatsApp forums six days back. It shows the LF-Congress alliance galloping to office with 176 seats; the ruling Trinamool Congress gets a mere 114. This "poll" gives BJP three seats. But even Left and Congress leaders have dubbed this "result" as "very ambitious".
It also gives the vote shares down to a decimal point: TMC gets 37.6%, the opposition alliance 44.1% and the BJP 10.8%. This is the one "poll" that comes with the logo of a research agency known for its accuracy. This was the first of the "reports" that started doing the rounds on April 27, the day Bengal witnessed former chief minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee trying to fit into a garland with Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi.
Then there is the "Central IB report". This detailed district-wise "poll result" gives the alliance a majority of 150 seats; it gives Trinamool 136 and the BJP five. But there is another "Central IB report", which corrects the data and gives the alliance 165 seats, Trinamool 121 and BJP eight.
Not all, however, throw their weight behind the alliance. A handwritten note doing the rounds on WhatsApp groups predicts a Trinamool home run. But it has two scenarios: one "best-case" and the other "conservative". The first "calculation" gives it 215 seats, the other 165. You can take your pick or go for the more sensible option: wait for May 19. But not too many in the city seem to be in the mood to do that.
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