Lack of vote-drawer may have cost alliance

Ask any comrade and s/he will say that CPM becoming the third force in the state assembly -- or one in four Bengal voters voting for it -- was unimaginable for the last half-a-century. But, it's a reality now. A cyclone may or may not hit the Bengal coast this week but one called Mamata has hit the Bengal CPM for the umpteenth time since the 2008 panchayat polls; this latest, to hit the CPM on Thursday, may be potentially delibitating.
Three, the BJP can now claim to be a consistent force in Bengal politics, despite winning only three seats and its vote share sliding to around 10% (from the 2014 Lok Sabha 17%). There will be opposition space in Bengal, just like in every state, and it now stands a chance of -- gradually -- appropriating that space if it can maintain a 10%-plus vote share.
The fourth important statistical takeaway from this result is the significant rise in the Trinamool's vote share, which has come despite it shedding the Congress as an ally. Forget statisticians, ask any politician and you would get the same answer: what it has achieved is politically and statistically improbable.Its vote share in 2011 was around 39% (with Congress as partner) and its post-divorce vote share in 2014 was also 39%. Now, that share has spiked, taking the Trinamool to around 45%. It would be tempting to attribute this 6% spike directly to the 7% dip in the BJP's vote share but it would also be foolish.
The fifth takeaway of this result may not be for the record books but it's definitely something to interest a political science student: the Congress's consistent vote share -- of 9%-12% -- in a state where it has not held office for the last four decades, which comes at a time when it is losing ground across several other Indian states. Its sway in vast areas of middle and upper Bengal as well as its islands of influence in South Bengal are remarkable for their durability. Adhir Chowdhury must be the only alliance leader, besides the victorious MLAs, who has been somewhat redeemed by this result.
All this brings us to two of the biggest lessons that voters have taught politicians across the spectrum. One, chemistry is more important than arithmetic in winning polls. And, two, you don't need to rig the vote to win an election; just do your work and let people choose.
First, the chemistry-arithmetic lesson: if arithmetic won polls, then the Congress-CPM alliance would have run the Trinamool close. In 2014, the Trinamool got around 39% of the vote share; add the CPM's and the Congress's individual vote shares and you would arrive at the same figure of around 39%. Add anti-incumbency and the alleged scams and you have the recipe for winning a poll.
But, then, life is not arithmetic; you need chemistry as well, in marriages of all types. The Congress and the LF's combined vote share this time is around 37%. How did this happen? How did the LF's own 2014 30% vote share dip to 25% now? Did the long-time CPM voter not like the hand symbol (where the Congress candidate represented the alliance)? The CPM's relevance in Bengal -- and the alliance's survival -- will depend on how quickly Alimuddin Street can answer these questions.
The result also provides enough clues to what may have worked for the Trinamool. One, the CPM's pre-2011 character is something that the average rural Bengal voter will take more than five years to forget; the Trinamool's exercise of absolute power in villages has not yet been as brutal as the CPM's, an overwhelming majority of rural voters has said through the vote. Two, to take on a mascot as powerful and overwhelming as Banerjee, you need charisma. With apologies to the decent person and politician that he is, the Bengal voter has not really bought the idea of Surjya Kanta Mishra being in the same league. The result now gives CM Banerjee the luxury of choosing her cabinet without the obligation of pleasing other veteran Trinamool leaders who might have made life difficult for her had she won anything less than 160 seats; all of them will now have to fall in line and stay there for the next five years.
She would also be tempted to just ignore all the allegations of corruption against her ministers now that they have been voted back to the assembly; she indicated as much just after the victory. What will provide her extra comfort is the Muslim vote in Kolkata and South Bengal staying firmly with her. So i t's a win-win situation for her and her party if you don't look at a few negatives. The dip in victory margins in Kolkata and neighbouring constituencies would be her biggest worry. The loss of six ministers will rank next. Then there is that minor thing about not having any presence in two Bengal districts: Malda and Darjeeling. But you cannot really blame Bengal's eighth chief minister for glossing over these problems when voters have just rolled out a green carpet for her to walk in those trademark blue-and-white Hawaii chappals.