Goodies give Mamata edge in 152 rural seats

The Left leaders also interpret the upright stance of the state police as indicative of winds of change. "It is not going to be a neck-and-neck fight. People may vote out the Trinamool as they did the Left in 2011, or relegate the jote to within the 100-seat band," a CPM leader said.
Optimists in the opposition camp would love to put the figures at 170-plus, while conservatives within the jote still don't see beyond 130.The reason, they say, are the 152 rural seats where the Mamata government is riding on beneficiaries of its welfare schemes - Kanyashree, Yuvashree, Sabuj Sathi, rice at Rs 2 a kilo and the like. They concede that a substantial portion of the urban poor is still with Didi. The difference in perception is because some Left leaders refuse to believe that the rising anti-incumbency has reached a level when people at large voted for a change like they did in 2011.
The next crucial factor in this poll is the projected slide in the BJP vote share from a high 17%. The big question is whose kitty these votes have gone to. A Trinamool leader said that a major part of the drop in BJP votes in Howrah - his estimate is 6%, or around 8,000 votes - has gone to Trinamool. He also believes that BJP will get a substantial chunk of votes in Kolkata, paving the way for Trinamool in a triangular fight. "Trinamool will win. Comfortably. Now is not the time for big talk. We will wait till May 19," said Trinamool Rajya Sabha MP Derek O'Brien.
Jote leaders rubbish this estimate, arguing that staunch BJP voters in urban areas wouldn't have voted for Trinamool this time. "Lok Sabha figures show that Narendra Modi had made dents in the Left vote bank. A portion of the BJP vote will return to the jote," CPM leader Asoke Bhattacharya said. BJP leaders are sitting tight, eyeing a situation where the party can play a role with at least four seats.
But will this projected slide in BJP's vote share hasten a shift among Muslims? A swing among the minorities in 127 seats where they have a strong presence may unsettle the Trinamool government. CPM state secretary Surjya Kanta Mishra doesn't foresee any major shift in this section except in some pockets where the minorities would go with Congress. The scene is however different in North Bengal where Congress mostly enjoys their confidence. The perception is similar across party lines from CPM's Moinul Hasan to CPM-turned Trinamool leader Abdur Rezzak Mollah.