Chennai: The main story of the 2014 LS election was Tamil Nadu bucking the trend and supporting the AIADMK in a national election. But there was another story too — of a new experiment in the Dravidian heartland.
Assembly Election Results
The BJP tried to float an alternative front of caste-based parties, each seeking to represent OBCs like vanniyars, gounders, mudaliars and udayars. NDA constituent PMK won Dharmapuri — in part because of vanniyar consolidation. BJP won Kanyakumari where it has a base. But the AIADMK sweep and the fact that the DMK was still in the reckoning showed that there’s little scope for a caste-based formation making a dent in TN. Governance, performance and incumbency appear to be clinchers.
The NDA has now come apart in TN and vanniyar-dominated PMK wants to grow out of its caste moorings, in part by projecting Anbumani Ramadoss as a dynamic, professionally qualified CM face. PMK is fighting alone this time.
This election, both Dravidian majors have fewer allies. The DMK failed to rope in the DMDK. Confident of taking on the DMK-Congress combo, Jayalalithaa is going with few partners. The BJP, it appears, has given up on its caste calculus.
Despite this, the main parties claiming an overarching OBC base have never shied away from playing the caste card, locally. Over the decades, Jayalalithaa has consolidated thevars and gounders who have a presence in central, southern and western TN.
The DMK is pitching for the patronage of vanniyars, nadars and mutharayars who have influence in the northern, central and southern districts and much depends on its candidate choice. If it fails to achieve this consolidation, AIADMK may gain. “Vanniyars (MBC) hold the key to this election,” says analyst Raveenthiran Doraiswamy. While vanniyars in Salem and Krishnagiri have traditionally supported the AIADMK, those in Cuddalore, Tiruvannamalai and Villupuram have backed the DMK. The PMK hopes to repeat its Dharmapuri performance. It has a decisive presence in Pennagaram, Palakode, Dharmapuri and Pappireddipatty of western TN and Jayamkondam in central TN. “Everyone is watching if it plays spoilsport to the AIADMK and the DMK,” says Doraiswamy. AIADMK has given 42 seats to vanniyars, the highest given by any mainstream party to the community, to stop the DMK from consolidate the community’s votes.
Some vanniyars who moved away from the DMK and the PMK to Vijayakanth’s DMDK could either shift loyalties to the DMK or the PMK because of Captain’s alliance with the VCK, a dalit outfit, M Kasinathan, a political analyst, says.
Emergence of the VCK has sharpened polarisation, OBC groups trying to band together against it. “Non-transfer of votes will be a problem in Vijayakanth’s grand alliance of DMDK, People’s Welfare Front (Vaiko’s MDMK, VCK, CPM and CPI) and Tamil Maanila Congress. Theirs is seen as an alliance of convenience,” Kasinathan says. Northern TN is a traditional DMK stronghold, but the last parliamentary election changed the dynamics with AIADMK winning all the seats here. While western TN has remained an AIADMK bastion, central TN offers a tough fight between the two major fronts. South, because of the DMK-Congress tie-up, is likely to tilt in its favour.
BJP’s hopes are confined to the six segments in Kanyakumari district and a couple of seats in Coimbatore, because all its erstwhile alliance partners have walked out of NDA.