Where even 1 seat matters, fronts measure every step

THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: It’s not often that tiny Kerala in the far south, less than a sixth the size of UP, becomes the centre of national politics. But this election, it’s all eyes on the May 16 results to the Kerala assembly because of the razor sharp contest that plays out here.

Unlike neighbouring Tamil Nadu and Andhra, national parties Congress and CPM still lead the political battle here, and BJP — an active presence in the state for over three decades — badly wants to make its maiden foray into the state assembly.

The ruling United Democratic Front (UDF) is headed by Congress, opposition Left Democratic Front (LDF) by the CPM. Significance of the Kerala polls was evident in the early days itself when national heads of the three leading parties were actively involved in the candidate selection process. CPM general secretary Sitaram Yechury flew down to Kerala to ensure veteran V S Achuthanandan’s candidature; Congress chief Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi held weeklong talks with Kerala leaders to parade the best possible choices. BJP chief Amit Shah continues to personally monitor every step of BJP’s campaign.

NO OPTIONS TO WINNING

Nothing less than a win will satisfy the CPM. The party has lost its hold in Bengal and badly needs a win in Kerala (along with Tripura) to keep the flag flying high. CPM and CPI also face the unprecedented threat of cadre jumping ship to join the saffron fold.

The onslaught of scams battering the UDF brings it some hopes of the tide turning. The LDF also hopes to cash in on the huge popularity of 92-year-old V S A ch u t h a n a n d a n contesting. While the minority Christians and Muslims stood like a rock behind the UDF in 2011, there’s change in attitude now.

The split in Kerala Congress (M) and new party Kerala Congress (Democratic)’s decision to join hands with LDF gave the front a last-minute entry to central Kerala’s Catholic strongholds. Help from Indian National League and a secret pact with Muslim leader Kanthapuram A P Aboobacker Musliyar will help the front reap some unexpected gains in the Muslim strongholds too.

BETWEEN THE SEA & A HARD PLACE?

Congress’s performance here is of significance given that, for the party HQ, this is opportunity for an all-out campaign against Modi’s government. A win here is a must. UDF’s major poll plank are the social security measures it has rolled out and thrust on infrastructure development. Rebellion at the grassroots level over seat sharing is its biggest worry for the moment. Branding of the front as a minority-dominated combine could drive away some Hindu voters.

AGAINST ALL ODDS

For BJP, it is a do or die battle. The saffron brigade is yet to open its account in the assembly here . The remarkable win in local body polls last year — when the party won in Palakkad municipality and finished second in Tripunithura municipality and Thiruvananthapuram Corporation — is keeping the party machinery rolling.

Strategic alliance with the Bharat Darma Jana Sena floated by the biggest social organisation of Ezhavas SNDP and tribal leader C K Janu’s joining seem to have brightened BJP’s chances. The NDA is contesting in all seats, but is hopeful in a clutch of 30. It has pinned its hopes on winning at least three to five seats in this round.