CPM wary of ground beneath its feet

Pathanamthitta: “He will win for the fifth time, and will be a minister in the LDF government,” hard-core CPM workers shout from the rooftops. The campaign impetus on ministership for Raju Abraham reveals the lack of confidence in the party, which now worries about a new contestant eating into their vote share CPM has been holding the seat ever since 1996.
After four consecutive wins, the party is facing threat not from Congress candidate Mariyamma Cheriyan, but K Padmakumar, the BDJS man in the fray. The SNDP Yogam district president, a popular figure, according to many keen observers, could split Ezhava votes -around 44,000 (21% of the total votes). The community is considered a crucial CPM vote bank and has remained loyal for the past two decades. Ranni, for the first time, is likely to witness a triangular contest, as the BJP had secured 18,000 votes in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. This was also the reason why BJP national president Amit Shah chose Ranni to launch his campaign in the state on Thursday.
“There has been a surge in the number of votes for the BJP (from 7,442 in the 2011 assembly elections to 18,531 in 2014 parliament elections).
Besides, there’s discontent among voters because of the continued negligence of Ranni. A 50% split in Ezhava votes is enough for us to win,” says Padmakumar, now into the fourth round of his campaign. But Raju Abraham is putting up a brave face. He is sure that the party will not lose a single Ezhava vote because of “BJP’s anti-reservation policies”.
“The main issue is the slump in rubber price, which has led to an erosion of the UDF votes, besides creating anti-Modi government sentiments. The CPM will win by an improved margin,” says the CPM candidate, who also has the support of the Knanaya church, which along with Marthomites, forms the majority of the Christian votes (38%).
Even a minor split in Ezhava votes, will be beneficial to KPCC secretary Mariyamma Cheriyan, the wife of the late Congress MLA M C Cheriyan, as the CPM’s margin had dropped to 6,614 in 2011 from 14,921 in 2006. The UDF had improved its position securing a lead of around 9,000 votes in Ranni segment in the Lok Sabha elections. It also won six out of the 12 grama panchayats and three out of the four district panchayat divisions.
“Two decades under CPM has taken Ranni 20 years backward. People want a change and a comprehensive development,” said Mariyamma. With Marthomites supporting her she too has high hopes of upsetting the CPM’s applecart.