AP may face below normal monsoon rainfall this year due to El Nino

Visakhapatnam: Concern is rising over a possible El Nino-induced weak monsoon in 2026, with rain-fed regions of north coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema likely to face agricultural challenges. The IMD has forecast below-normal rainfall across most districts, with only a few expected to record normal or above-normal rains during the southwest monsoon (June–September). El Niño conditions are projected to emerge between June and August and persist through the year. El Nino refers to the periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. The phenomenon typically lasts between nine and 12 months and recurs every two to seven years. The IMD estimates seasonal rainfall between 90 and 95% of the long-period average, with a central forecast of about 92%. The country's long-period average monsoon rainfall, based on 1971-2020 data, stands at 87 cm.Speaking to TOI, scientist at IMD-Amaravati, S Karunasagar, said the IMD has indicated that Andhra Pradesh is likely to receive below-normal monsoon rainfall in 2026. In the backdrop of possible El Nino conditions developing in 2026, farmers should take advance precautions and plan agricultural activities accordingly as El Nino can lead to significant changes in wind circulation patterns, rainfall distribution and temperatures, he added.The last time El Nino conditions developed in the country was in the year 2023 and Andhra Pradesh received below-normal rainfall in 2023.According to IMD, in the past 12 years (2014-2025), Andhra Pradesh recorded deficient rainfall in 2014, 2018 and 2023 during the monsoon period. The cumulative rainfall deficiency stands at 18.4% in 2014, 10% in 2018 and 13% in 2023. Andhra Pradesh recorded above-normal rainfall during the SW monsoon in 2015, 2016, 2017, 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022, 2024 and normal rainfall in 2025.Though the overall impact of the potential El Nino event in 2026 on the agriculture sector is likely to be limited compared to earlier decades, the need to promote better water conservation practices, farm management and wider use of high-yielding and resilient seed varieties, said experts in the agriculture sector.Most parts of the south coastal Andhra Pradesh have a proper irrigation system whereas Rayalaseema and north coastal Andhra Pradesh have only 20 to 30% of their lands have irrigation systems. The govt needs to proceed with caution but confidence and to focus on a comfortable position of reservoir storage to meet the adverse weather conditions, the farmers in north Andhra opined.