Census delay may derail India’s policy planning, cautions expert

Pune: The absence of updated Census data could severely hamper the nation's ability to respond to critical population shifts, said Anjali Radkar, head of centre for study of social inclusion, Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics, late on Friday evening.She said Census is not just about counting heads, but a fundamental tool to understand population dynamics and planning for the future."If India continues to rely on the outdated 2011 Census figures, the gap in current demographic understanding will grow wider, potentially affecting everything — from urban planning to social security measures. We are essentially making crucial policy decisions while looking through a 2011 lens," she said at an event on India's missing numbers and the urgency of postponed Census.The urgency of updated Census data becomes apparent when considering India's rapidly evolving demographic landscape. From a modest 238 million in 1901, India's population surged to 1.2 billion by 2011, now representing 17.7% of the world's population while occupying just 2.4% of the global land area. Current projections suggest India's population will peak around 2060 before beginning to decline, but these projections remain speculative at best without fresh Census data.Perhaps most concerning is the impact on migration tracking. "Census is our only comprehensive source of migration data," Radkar said. "In this era of massive population movements, especially post-pandemic, we are flying blind when it comes to understanding these crucial demographic shifts."The challenges extend to social security planning as well. With the elderly population growing faster than the overall population, planners face a critical handicap in preparing for future needs. "By 2050, one-fifth of our population will be elderly, with fewer working-age individuals to support them. Without current data, how can we adequately prepare for this transition?" she asked.Radkar further said the ripple effects of delayed Census data touch every aspect of governance. Urban planners struggle to anticipate infrastructure needs, while govt schemes lack current parameters for selecting beneficiary communities. Even research institutions find themselves handicapped, as Census provides the foundational framework for all other demographic surveys and studies.Of particular concern is the phenomenon of "feminisation of aging," with women's longer life expectancy leading to a higher proportion of elderly females — a trend that requires specific healthcare and social support planning. However, without updated Census figures, policymakers can only guess at the current magnitude of this shift, she said."In isolation, a Census tells us little. It is the ability to compare data points across decades that gives us crucial insights into population dynamics. Every year of delay is a missed opportunity to understand and respond to emerging demographic challenges," Radkar said.As India stands at the cusp of significant demographic transitions, the need for current, comprehensive population data has never been more critical. With the Census traditionally serving as the nation's demographic compass since 1881, its continued delay leaves policymakers navigating increasingly uncertain waters, potentially compromising the effectiveness of long-term planning and resource allocation. The programme was organised by ShodhEco as part of their monthly public discussion.
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