Bihar polls: No strong anti-incumbency against Nitish Kumar as state heads to elections

PATNA: As Bihar moves toward the first phase of assembly elections on Nov 6, when voters in 121 of the 243 constituencies will cast their ballots, no strong anti-incumbency wave appears visible against CM Nitish Kumar. Having ruled the state for nearly two decades, the JD(U) leader, heading the NDA, faces fierce opposition from the INDIA bloc but remains largely unscathed by voter resentment – a rare occurrence in Indian state politics.Despite migration for jobs, inadequacy of civic infrastructure, weak healthcare, inadequate public transport and other problems in Bihar, a large number of voters seem willing to give Nitish another chance. Even leaders from the Congress and RJD admit in private conversations that it is “a surprise” that there is no strong anti-incumbency mood against him.The NDA campaign has centred on Nitish and PM Narendra Modi, highlighting their “double-engine govt” slogan. Wall paintings and posters across towns, such as one in Darbhanga’s Sonki area declaring “Mahilao ki jayjaykar, fir se NDA sarkar,” reinforce this message.Speculation about Nitish’s health has not deterred the NDA from banking heavily on his leadership. During a recent Bihar visit, PM Narendra Modi said, “The NDA will achieve a record-breaking victory under Nitish’s leadership in Bihar.”Birender Mishra, a resident of Dhoi village in Darbhanga rural constituency, said, “Nitish ji is fine. In 20 years, he has done a lot of work. Roads have improved, electricity supply has improved and the village has piped water connections. The central govt is also supporting Nitish because he has a good relationship with Modi.” Yet, he appeared saddened that his sons working in Mumbai as labourers could not return home for Chhath.Across north Bihar districts like Samastipur, Darbhanga, Muzaffarpur, Vaishali, and even parts of Patna, voters from various castes, including many Yadavs, echoed similar sentiments. The expectations of most people remain modest – better roads, electricity, ration and functional health centres.In Nitish’s home district of Nalanda, residents largely denied any anti-incumbency sentiment, though several voiced frustration over bureaucratic apathy. “It has become very difficult to get even basic work done in the block offices. Even though we are from Nitish’s native place, routine tasks like updating land records take a lot of time and effort. The officials do not listen to us. If any anti-incumbency shows up in the results, it will be because of the officials, not Nitish,” said Dinesh Singh of Mahathwar village, located close to Kalyan Bigha, the CM’s native village.According to political observers, Nitish’s success in blunting anti-incumbency stems from his ability to blend welfare, infrastructure and social justice politics under his slogan “nyay ke saath vikas” (justice with development). His flagship Saat Nischay programmes have improved access to electricity, tap water, toilets and roads, while schemes like the Kushal Yuva Programme and Student Credit Card Scheme have addressed youth employability.Women’s empowerment measures, including 50% reservation in panchayats, 35% in govt jobs, the cycle yojana for schoolgirls and the success of self-help groups like Jeevika, have built a strong support base among women voters. Major infrastructure projects such as the Patna Metro, new bridges and expanded road networks – though largely centred around Patna – have further strengthened Nitish’s image as a development-focused leader.Analysts say these policies have generated quiet satisfaction among voters. “Nitish may not have completely transformed Bihar in the last 20 years and the state still faces problems such as migration, poor public healthcare and lack of jobs. But his infrastructure and welfare work has benefited many, which is why there is no strong anti-incumbency against him, especially among women,” said Tanvir Aeijaz, associate professor of political science at Delhi University’s Ramjas College.BJP leaders have also aligned behind Nitish’s leadership. At a rally in Samastipur, Modi said, “Nitishji has been working day and night… he has pulled Bihar out of a deep crisis… a new phase of development has begun. Under Nitish’s leadership, the NDA is going to break all past records of victory.”However, the RJD insists that “people of Bihar are desperate for change” and continues to attack Nitish’s record. Stepping up his criticism, RJD leader Tejashwi Prasad Yadav accused the NDA of turning Bihar into a “centre of unemployment, migration, and poverty.” He said, “BJP leaders and corrupt officials have made Nitish Kumar a puppet. The BJP is using him to further its interests. Union Home Minister Amit Shah has already made it clear that Nitish will not be the CM face.”For now, Nitish remains the NDA’s stability anchor, a leader whose mix of development and welfare has managed to dilute anti-incumbency after two decades in power. As the first phase of polling approaches, Bihar’s electoral contest is shaping up as one between Nitish’s promise of continuity and Tejashwi’s call for change. The people’s verdict will be known on Nov 14 when the results are declared.