Amravati seeing an M-shaped curve: Expert

MUMBAI: The resurgence of Covid cases in Amravati after a steep fall has become the subject of intrigue, with many questioning if the district is witnessing a ‘third wave’. Epidemiologists concur the answer is ‘no’ since a spurt within an ongoing wave largely points to inadequate Covid control measures on the ground. Experts say the mutation could also be playing a role, reports Sumitra DebRoy.
The state’s second wave started from this Vidarbha district that began to see a steady spike in mid-January.From less than 500 active cases on January 15, it had 10,205 active cases on Monday, with 1,208 deaths. In between, the figures have seen a swing.
Amravati, which had less than 500 active cases on January 15, saw 3,090 cases by February 15—a 518% rise. By the end of February, the district had 6,600 active cases.
As lockdown-like measures were introduced on February 22, cases started to climb down. By March 31, the active cases were down to 2,935. Within a month and despite the lockdown-like measures, cases started to rise again in mid-April. On April 15, it had 4,636 active cases, which touched 7,134 by the end of the month.
As on Monday, Amravati district had 10,205 active cases and 1,208 deaths.
Dr Chandrakant Lahariya, medical epidemiologist and health systems expert, called it the ‘M’ shaped curve. “Firstly, till a district’s positivity rate has come below 5%, we cannot say it is out of a wave. And, if a region starts witnessing a rise within an ongoing wave, it means measures on ground are not working,” he said.
Dr Shashank Joshi, member of the state Covid taskforce, said mutations could be driving the high transmission in Amravati. The double mutation— E484Q and L452R, now classified as B 1.617, was detected in samples from Amravati as early as February. B1.617 was recently categorised as a variant of concern by the WHO. “Sub-lineages of the variant, B1.617.2, are also seen in Amravati samples,” he added.
A closer look at the transmission trend within the district shows Amravati Municipal Corporation was driving the January spurt, while the rest of the district, including its semi-urban and rural areas, pushed up the April numbers. On February 28, for instance, the corporation area had reported 632 new cases while the rest of the district had recorded 230 cases. The trend has completely reversed now. On May 15, for example, the corporation saw 219 detections, but the rest of the district contributed to 736 cases. State’s surveillance officer Dr Pradeep Awate called it a classic behaviour of the virus and not a third wave.
While a drift from urban to peri-urban and rural is common in other districts too, none of them have registered such a sharp rise after a drop.
“When all districts in Maharashtra, including Mumbai and Pune, were seeing a rise, we were seeing a decline. But when everyone is seeing a dip now, we continue to see an increase,” said district civic surgeon Dr Shyamsunder Nikam.
Within Amravati, Warud and other commercial towns like Achalpur and Morshi are contributing to most cases. District health officer Dr Dilip Ranmale said there is intermingling of people in these areas plus an influx from cities of Madhya Pradesh.