Kozhikode: Campaigning ended in the five districts of Malabar on Tuesday, with contests in several constituencies going down to the wire. LDF is facing challenges in many of its bastions that until recently were considered relatively-secure terrain.
The 48 assembly seats in Kozhikode, Malappuram, Wayanad, Kannur and Kasaragod remain central to LDF's poll arithmetic. In 2016, LDF won 28 seats, leaving UDF with 20, including 15 won by IUML. The region has often helped LDF gain power. This time UDF is trying to rebalance the equation.
The region is witnessing a close contest, with several seats turning into cliffhangers. Minority sentiment, public rebellion in two CPM strongholds in Kannur and issue-based campaigning have tightened the race in constituencies once seen as comfortable for LDF.
Allegations of a tacit CPM-BJP understanding shaped campaign narratives amid anxieties among sections of Muslim electorate over a perceived drift towards majoritarian positions and the alleged proximity of the Left to SNDP leader Vellappally Natesan. UDF tried to consolidate these concerns to its advantage.
LDF based its campaign on welfare and development. It projected continuity and governance stability as key strengths. It also attacked UDF for taking support of Jamaat-e-Islami and for its ambivalent stand on support from SDPI. LDF further highlighted what it described as the Congress' failure to fulfil promises on housing for Wayanad landslide victims and raised allegations of misappropriation of rehabilitation funds.
Signs of a breach
Kozhikode that has traditionally leaned towards LDF is showing some of the clearest signs of an undercurrent. Congress has not won a seat here in over 25 years. In 2021, UDF was limited to Koduvally and Vadakara held by RMP. This time, contests have become tight in over six constituencies. Kuttiady, Nadapuram and Kozhikode South have turned competitive for UDF and it has mounted strong challenges in Koyilandy and Kunnamangalam. LDF still holds an advantage in Beypore, Elathur and Balussery.
UDF aims for a sweep
In Malappuram, IUML's stronghold, UDF appears well placed to retain dominance and aim for a near sweep. It holds the advantage in most constituencies, with close contests only in Ponnani and Thavanur. Tanur MLA V Abdurahiman did not campaign for three days after LDF's list was released as he preferred to contest from Tirur. The party is also facing internal issues in Ponnani where CPM replaced MLA P Nandakumar with MK Sakeer.
Rehabilitation narrative holds key
In Wayanad, the election has largely centred on rehabilitation of landslide-affected families. UDF is trying to retain Kalpetta and Mananthavady. LDF is seeking to win by highlighting its relief and rebuilding efforts.
Internal rebellion fuels volatility
In Kannur, election has become unusually volatile due to the rebellion within CPM. District secretariat member T K Govindan and senior leader V Kunhikrishnan are contesting as UDF-backed independents. LDF's seats in Kannur and Azhikode may flip. UDF's only sitting seat in Peravoor has turned into a high-profile contest between KPCC chief Sunny Joseph and CPM leader K K Shailaja. Left strongholds of Dharmadom, Kalliassery, Thalassery and Mattannur remain intact.
Manjeshwar remains an outlier
In Kasaragod, voting patterns remain largely unchanged, though two constituencies are witnessing triangular contests. Manjeshwar is seeing a close fight between BJP's K Surendran and IUML MLA AKM Ashraf, with both sides investing significant political capital.
Overall, Malabar districts present a more competitive picture than in previous elections. UDF's push, especially in minority-dominated areas, has made many seats too close to call. LDF retains structural advantages in several constituencies in Kannur. With elections in two days, Malabar is set to play a key role once again in a contest shaped by shifting political ground rather than fixed loyalties.
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Live UpdatesRajeev K R is a Senior Assistant Editor with The Times of India w...
Read MoreRajeev K R is a Senior Assistant Editor with The Times of India with over two decades of experience in journalism. He has been covering Malabar districts for TOI. He writes of a range of subjects including politics, environment, education etc. He holds a Master's degree in Journalism from University of Calicut. Rajeev had worked with The New Indian Express and served as Information Officer at the Ruler's Court in Ras Al Khaimah, UAE before joining Times of India.
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