Rising seas & salinity to changing tidal patterns: New study flags Sundarbans climate concerns

Kolkata: The Sundarbans, India’s biggest mangrove ecosystem that serves as a natural barrier protecting coastal Bengal and capital city Kolkata from the ever-increasing number of Bay of Bengal storms, faces immediate climate threats that can jeopardize both its unique biodiversity and local populations.

According to a new report by Azim Premji University, the climate crisis has progressed from a distant projection to a hyper-local reality for the region’s fishing and farming communities. The study, which analyses near-term climate shifts, confirms that changing tidal patterns, rising sea levels and accelerating salinity levels are already destabilising the fragile delta ecosystem.

The ‘Indian Coastal Region: Climate Projections 2021-2040’ report uses high-resolution data to map our near-term destiny. It reveals that the 1.5°C global warming threshold is rapidly closing in on India’s 11,000-km coastline. In the district of South 24 Parganas, our summer wet-bulb temperature — a lethal metric combining heat and humidity — is projected to spike by 1°C. Our annual maximums and winter minimums are climbing steadily by 0.6°C.

“2040 is just 14 years away,” said Anurag Behar, CEO, Azim Premji Foundation. “This dataset brings to life the impacts of climate change with much greater immediacy, highlighting how we must restructure our infrastructure and governance to ensure we collectively address this crisis.”

Warming seas are rapidly accelerating tropical cyclone risks, and the monsoons are throwing off their ancient rhythms. The Southwest monsoon is projected to swell, while the Northeast monsoon will surge by 8%. This excess water doesn’t bring life; it brings destruction. “Frequent storm surges rip through our earthen embankments, pushing saltwater deep into agricultural lands and drinking wells,” he added.

This rising salinity leaves behind a bitter trail, says the study. “Fishermen often return with empty nets as fish flee to deeper, cooler waters, while our women pay the heaviest price. Bathed daily in brackish waters to gather wood or fish, they suffer from chronic skin diseases and severe reproductive health challenges,” it added.

“The crisis is hyper-local and immediate,” warns Harini Nagendra, director at the university’s School of Climate Change and Sustainability. As the mudflats erode and “ghost villages” loom across India’s coastline, the window to adapt is narrowing. “We have less than 14 years until 2040. I am fighting for my survival, and with me, the lives of 10 million people who call my delta home,” said a villager.