Bengal turns the page: Mamata Banerjee’s defeat signals deeper churn as BJP dismantles Trinamool’s dominance

A seismic political shift in Bengal brought the Mamata Banerjee era in the state to an end on Monday, robbing the three-time chief minister of a historic fourth term - had Trinamool won, she would have become India's longest-serving woman CM - and taking down a pillar of INDIA bloc.

The stunning defeat, not just for her party but for Mamata herself - she lost Bhabanipur to Suvendu Adhikari - puts her back in opposition in West Bengal, a position where she cut her teeth as a firebrand, streetfighter politician, except age is no longer on the 71-year-old's side.



No stranger to tough challenges, Mamata, who architected Left Front's downfall in 2011 after 34 years in office, riding on the land agitations at Singur (against the Tata Nano factory) and Nandigram, was up against anti-incumbency of her own 15-year reign this time. She had no answers.

She went all-out against Election Commission's SIR of the electoral rolls and the controversial 'logical discrepancy' criteria that was used in Bengal. In Supreme Court, her appearance as the 'people's petitioner' showed she hadn't lost her fight-to-the-end instinct, whether the arena was a Kolkata street or a courtroom in Delhi.

But SIR, as Monday's result showed, wasn't to be the tool that would neutralise anti-incumbency for Trinamool.

The drubbing in the assembly polls came as a shocker to Mamata and Trinamool. "I do not accept this loss. I will be back," she said.

But it had become clear since the Lok Sabha election in 2019 that BJP was on mission mode in Bengal, willing to pull out all the stops to build on its record 38% vote share. In 2021, she had faced a stiff saffron challenge too that was led by Modi, but Mamata prevailed with her 'Khela hobe' campaign, welfare pitch and appeal to protect Bengali culture from outsiders.

This time, they didn't work despite the introduction of Yuva Sathi (a monthly assistance of Rs 1,500 for Class X passouts between 21 and 40 years old who are unemployed) and the increased allocation for the scheme for women, Lakshmir Bhandar (to Rs 1,500 a month from Rs 1,200). More than 81 lakh (over 10% of Bengal's voters) queued up to be enrolled on Yuva Sathi. But when they queued up at polling booths, the scheme wasn't enough persuasion to vote TMC.

There were several factors weighing Mamata down like allegations of corruption against party colleagues and the teacher recruitment scam. Mamata had appealed to voters in 2021, "Every vote for Trinamool is a vote for Mamata Banerjee; forget the candidate." It resonated. She made the same appeal this time.

TMC retaining more than 40% of the vote share despite BJP sailing to 207 seats shows the message still had stickiness but not enough. Losing Bengal also weakens Mamata's position in the opposition alliance against BJP despite TMC's strong presence in Lok Sabha, with Congress once again likely to call the shots. Mamata will, however, take heart from the vote share. Didi is down, but not totally out.
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