Kerala polls: SIR fallout reshapes high-stakes triangular fight in Thrissur

If there is any constituency in the state, or even the country, where UDF and LDF, otherwise vocal critics of the Special Intensive Revision (SIR), might see it as a blessing in disguise, it is the Thrissur assembly seat, though they may not say so publicly. Curiously, BJP, the principal proponent of the SIR, may be privately regretting its impact in Thrissur. Around 30,000 voters who were on the rolls during the last Parliament elections have been removed following the SIR.

LDF and UDF allege that many of these voters had been ‘imported' from other constituencies to Thrissur to secure the victory of the present minister of state, Suresh Gopi, in the 2024 Lok Sabha election. Interestingly, some BJP leaders have appeared to endorse the claim, admitting that voters from neighbouring constituencies were added to Thrissur's rolls at the time. One leader even remarked that the party could bring voters "even from Kashmir" to Thrissur, and questioned who would challenge it.

The absence of these 30,000 voters is set to be a crucial factor in Thrissur, where a complex triangular fight is shaping up between Padmaja Venugopal of BJP-NDA, Rajan Pallan of UDF and Alamkode Leelakrishnan of LDF.

Both LDF and UDF poll managers argue that the deletions will work in their favour. BJP leaders, however, said they have strategies to offset the loss, maintaining that the pro-BJP momentum seen during Suresh Gopi's Lok Sabha run in 2024 still continues in the constituency. The Thrissur assembly segment comprises 40 divisions of the Thrissur corporation. UDF leaders pointed out that they won 25 of these in the last local body elections, and their recent return to power in the corporation after a decade has boosted morale. DCC president Joseph Tajet said there is strong anti-incumbency in the constituency.

DCC president Joseph Tajet claimed that there is a strong anti-incumbency trend prevailing in the constituency both against the Pinarayi government and against the LDF regime which was ruling the Corporation till about a couple of months back. CPI leader V S Sunilkumar strongly denied any anti-incumbency in the constituency. He said voters favour the continuation of development initiatives launched by LDF govt. "We have addressed concerns over the candidate's unfamiliarity through a systematic campaign," he said, adding that Leelakrishnan's contributions to the literary field will work in LDF's favour.

BJP leader Ravikumar Uppath said the failure of outgoing CPI MLA P Balachandran would work to the party's advantage. He also claimed that funds sanctioned by Suresh Gopi had not been properly utilised. He further said Prime Minister Narendra Modi's roadshow has further consolidated support for the BJP. BJP leaders are hopeful that Centre's decision to put the Foreign Contributions (Regulation) Amendment Bill, 2026 on hold would mitigate the apprehensions of the Christian community.

Communal factors are likely to play a key role in Thrissur. Reports suggest a possible consolidation of Christian voters in favour of UDF, even as there are concerns within the front about a counter-consolidation among Hindus. Both LDF and UDF are also making concerted efforts to attract Muslim voters.

Strong undercurrents in the constituency are making the outcome hard to predict. A candidate who appears to be leading one day can just as easily seem to slip to third place the next. The impact of the kit distribution allegations raised late in the campaign is also difficult to assess.