Kerala assembly polls: In Palakkad, BJP senses breakthrough, UDF fights to hold fortress

As summer blazes across Palakkad, Kerala's hottest district, political temperatures are rising just as sharply. BJP-led NDA and Congress-led UDF are locked in a fierce electoral battle where neither side can afford to concede ground. For BJP, this constituency represents a long-awaited breakthrough. For UDF, it is a seat they cannot afford to lose, one that has returned the same MLA, Shafi Parambil, for three consecutive terms.

The constituency includes Palakkad municipality, which BJP has governed for three terms. The surrounding panchayats of Kannadi, Piriyari and Mathur, which have historically leaned toward LDF and UDF, will likely prove decisive. BJP has made inroads even here, winning wards in two of the three local bodies.




Leading BJP's charge is Sobha Surendran, a fiery orator and one of the party's most prominent women candidates. Alongside K K Shailaja, she is among the few women candidates whose campaign is generating significant public attention. Long before her candidature was announced, Sobha had entered the constituency and begun working closely with the cadre. The party leadership's message was clear: She would contest and the organization must mobilize fully for her victory.

In contrast to earlier phases, party and RSS offices had appeared unusually quiet, with fewer workers on the ground. That has since changed. Leaders who were absent at the start of her campaign are now fully engaged—spurred by PM Narendra Modi's pointed call at a rally in Palakkad, his first in the state after the election announcement. Ironically, the rival candidates have helped unify local BJP workers who had long been divided. From the by-elections to the local body polls, factional rifts persisted. Sobha's candidature, however, has brought former councillors and ward members together, now working in a campaign closely steered by her.

BJP's growing confidence is backed by steadily improving numbers. Its vote share climbed from 19.86% in 2011 to 28.07% by the time Sobha contested previously, pushing senior CPM leader N N Krishnadas to third place, a blow LDF never fully recovered from. The share surged further to 35.34% when E Sreedharan contested in 2021. A dip during the 2024 by-elections has been attributed by party insiders to low worker morale and poor motivation rather than any structural shift in support.

For UDF, the absence of Parambil, a four-time winner with strong grassroots credibility, has been a setback. While Pisharody is not without campaign experience, political combativeness is not his strength. He has remained measured and polite even as both opponents direct pointed criticism at him. UDF workers appear to draw comfort from Parambil's active role in managing the campaign from behind the scenes.

LDF finds itself a distant third. Its candidate, N M Razack, is an independent businessman from the Rawther community, an influential Muslim group in Palakkad. Party leaders said that Razack's candidature will attract non-Left votes, but whether he can hold on to the LDF's existing base remains doubtful. His presence has fuelled persistent rumours of an informal understanding between CPM and BJP, a charge the Left has not convincingly dispelled.

The consolidation of Muslim votes, currently split between LDF and UDF, could prove decisive. Parambil's increased presence in the final days suggests a push to secure that base. There is little indication, however, that Razack will significantly attract these votes. While CPM leaders said he could draw some non-Left support, doubts persist over whether he can retain the party's core base, especially as women voters and sections of Hindu voters may consolidate elsewhere.

"I think Sobha Surendran will win," said T Unnikrishnan, an autorickshaw driver. "There has been no real development in the town or its outskirts. Traffic has only gotten worse, and old projects are still on paper. Having an NDA MLA would mean direct access to the Centre."
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