Exit polls paint Assam saffron, BJP poised to cross halfway mark

Guwahati: BJP-led four-party NDA is poised to retain power in Assam for a historic third consecutive term, according to a flurry of exit polls released on Wednesday evening that point to a strong pro-incumbency wave led by chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma.

The single-phase elections on April 9 recorded the highest-ever poll participation in the state with a voter turnout of 85.9%, indicating a highly mobilised electorate.



The projections indicate a comfortable victory for the saffron alliance, with several pollsters predicting a thumping mandate that could see BJP crossing the halfway mark of 64 seats in the 126-member assembly on its own for the first time.

On average, across eight exit polls, NDA is expected to win around 86-97 seats, Congress and its allies about 24-32 seats, and others including AIUDF roughly 1-3 seats — suggesting a clear edge for BJP-led alliance across pollsters.

Exit polls are surveys conducted immediately after voters cast their votes. These polls aim to predict election outcomes based on voter responses and trends.

A look at Assam’s 2021 exit polls showed that almost every pollster agreed the BJP-led NDA was ahead, but the size of that lead varied dramatically.

Some, like India Today–Axis My India and Republic-CNX, were remarkably close to the final tally, projecting the NDA in the mid-70s to low-80s and Congress+ around 40–50. Others, such as ABP News–CVoter, TV9-Polstrat, and TimesNow-CVoter, leaned toward a hung assembly.

The average of all polls put the NDA at about 71 seats and Congress-led alliance at 54, which was only a few seats off the actual result of 75 vs 50.

The official counting of votes will take place on May 4, alongside West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Puducherry and if the projections hold true, the BJP will cement its position as the undisputed dominant force in northeast India.
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