Large turnout in Salcete brings hope to Congress

Margao: The high voter turnout across all assembly segments of South Goa has kept political pundits guessing the outcome of the results. The eight assembly segments of Salcete, the citadel of Congress in South Goa, kept pace with the high polling percentage in the rest of South Goa, lending Congress a sense of hope and reassurance that it was well on the course to a remarkable finish.

While poll pundits had generally felt that a higher turnout in Catholic-dominated constituencies of Salcete would prove propitious for Salcete, the uniform high polling figures registered in all the assembly segments of South Goa have made such a reading incongruous or error-prone, they now reckon.

“The high turnout in Salcete per se doesn’t lend itself to any political reading as there’s been a high turnout across the state,” said political commentator Cleofato Countinho. “However, Congress should realise it cannot win only with Salcete. Congress had no organisation in most parts of the constituency. The organisational prowess of BJP has lent an edge to its candidate, though the contest could be close.”

Political analysts attribute the high turnout in Salcete to the voters’ disenchantment against the turncoat MLAs. “Salcete has never stood by BJP, and so the high or low turnout hardly matters to it. Salcete has always voted in vengeance every time it desired a change, and this time, the high polling percentage reflects the voters’ anger against their MLAs defecting to BJP, a party the people of Salcete have always detested. They have voted in vengeance,” a political commentator reasoned.

He spots a trend in the polling pattern of Salcete in the 2022 assembly elections and the current Lok Sabha turnout. “In the 2022 assembly elections,” he explained, “voters of Salcete expressed their ire against the defections of 2019 by rejecting all the turncoats. The same pattern has been replicated in this election. It’s a vote against defection. So, while the polling percentage may be relatively static, the results could well be drastic.”

BJP has well predicted this voter behaviour of Salcete, political observers said. And to offset a loss in this Congress bastion, BJP concentrated on consolidating its traditional votes in its stronghold areas of Ponda, Sanguem, Sanvordem and Canacona.

“The strategy appears to have worked to the tee,” a poll watcher said. The leads BJP secures over Congress would prove decisive.”

Besides, political observers also point to a probable shift in BJP’s non-cadre votes this election, which could be a cause of some concern for the party. “The cadre may have toiled relentlessly for the party, but one can’t negate a significant shift of its non-cadre vote,” a poll commentator said. “The outcome of the election will also depend on the extent to which this shift has taken place.”


PHOTO CAPTION: Uniformly high polling figures were registered in all of South Goa’s assembly segments