Climate change threatens coffee yields as India logs 30 additional hot days a year

Dehradun: India recorded an average of 30 additional days each year above 30°C between 2021 and 2025 due to climate change, exposing coffee plants to prolonged heat stress that disrupted flowering, reduced soil moisture and threatened yields, a new analysis released on Tuesday showed.The report, prepared by Climate Central, a global scientific organisation working in climate science, found that fossil fuel-driven warming intensified heat across the world's coffee-growing "bean belt", adding an average of 57 extra coffee-harming hot days annually in the top five producing countries. Temperatures beyond 30°C, which scientists identify as a critical stress threshold for coffee, increasingly interfered with flowering and fruit development, pushing yields lower and tightening global supplies.
In financial markets far from the plantations, the impact is registered in price charts. Citing World Bank data, the analysis showed that global prices of both Arabica and Robusta beans nearly doubled between 2023 and 2025, based on the International Coffee Organization's (ICO) indicator price. The average annual price of Arabica rose from $4.54 per kg in 2023 to $8.47 per kg in 2025, while Robusta climbed from $2.63 per kg to $4.86 per kg during the same period.India, the world's seventh-largest coffee producer accounting for 3.5% of global output, ranked 18th among major producers in additional climate-driven heat days. On average, the country recorded 118 days annually above 30°C between 2021 and 2025, of which 30 days were directly attributed to climate change, the report found.Within India, the pattern varied sharply by state. Kerala recorded 157 days annually above 30°C, with 65 days added due to climate change, among the highest in the country. Tripura recorded 47 additional hot days linked to warming, followed by Telangana with 44, Tamil Nadu with 43 and Mizoram with 40. Karnataka, which produced the largest share of India's coffee, saw 32 additional hot days attributed to climate change.In the shaded plantations of the Western Ghats, growers said they measured these shifts not only in data sets but in the rhythm of their harvests. Sohan Shetty, who managed shaded organic coffee farms for Satyanarayana Plantations, said, "We are seeing two significant changes: increased temperatures and erratic rainfall. We see a reduction in soil moisture, even in shade-grown coffee. This creates stress for coffee plants, which in turn triggers blossoms with erratic rains. So it is quite common to see planters halting harvesting because part of their plants blossomed. We saw our coffee fruit drying up on the plants faster because of increased temperatures."Akshay Dashrath, co-founder and grower at South India Coffee Company, described the change as measurable and immediate. "At Mooleh Manay, our farm, climate change isn't something we're predicting; it's something we're measuring every day. What's happening is a clear signal that climate change is already reshaping how coffee is grown in Kodagu," he said.The report noted that smallholders produced 60–80% of the world's coffee but received just 0.36% of the financing required for adaptation in 2021. It estimated that adapting a one-hectare farm cost $2.19 per day on average, underscoring the funding gap facing growers as heat exposure intensified.