US countervailing duty clouds India’s solar export outlook

Chennai: India's solar exporters face a severe jolt after the US commerce department proposed countervailing duties of 125.9% on crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells from India, citing alleged subsidies. The preliminary finding covers shipments to the US, which absorbs more than 95% of India's solar cell and module exports.The duty is likely to wipe out the cost advantage Indian suppliers enjoyed over US-made modules, which themselves rely on imported cells. Final duty rates are expected in July 2026. Until then, trade flows may remain volatile. Waree Energies, Vikram Solar, Premier Energies, Mundra Solar Energy and Mundra Solar PV are among the major Indian solar equipment exporters to the US.
"Between April 2023 and Nov 2025, India exported cells and modules worth roughly Rs 340 billion to the US," said Sehul Bhatt, director at Crisil Intelligence. Modules from India could become at least 30% more expensive compared with US-made alternatives, rendering them commercially unviable, he added.Trade research body GTRI said that India exported solar panels worth $1.2 billion to the US, 18% lower than in 2024. "At this rate, a $100 panel could land in the US at about $226, making many contracts commercially unviable," it added. Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia and Cambodia already face heavy countervailing duties.Abhishek Pareek, group head – Finance at Waaree Energies, said the matter remains under review and the company does not expect a material impact on its ability to service its US order book. It is expanding local manufacturing in the United States and diversifying its supply chain. Emmvee Photovoltaic Power said there is no impact on its business operations, as its solar cell and module production is primarily aligned with domestic demand. India's solar manufacturing ecosystem was largely built as an export-driven sector. In its early years, more than 90% of modules produced were shipped abroad, with the US emerging as the single largest market. "Several companies set up manufacturing capacity specifically to cater to US demand, a dynamic that could now alter business models across the sector," said Vibhuti Garg, director – South Asia, IEEFA. The timing is awkward. Ankit Jain, vice president and co-group head for corporate ratings at ICRA, said India's module capacity already exceeds 140GW and is projected to cross 165GW by March 2027. In 2025 alone, India exported about 3GW of solar cells and modules to US. If these volumes are redirected to the domestic market, prices could come under pressure in an already oversupplied sector. Analysts said that with the introduction of domestic content requirements and stronger policy support in recent years, local demand has expanded rapidly, helping manufacturers align with India's renewable energy deployment targets. Additionally, India's expanding trade agreements could help diversify export destinations, opening opportunities in Europe, Africa, and other emerging markets.