CHENNAI: Bringing the curtains down on the four-year AIADMK government led by Edappadi K
Palaniswami, the Election Commission of India on Friday announced elections to the 234-member
Tamil Nadu assembly.
It was life on tenterhooks for Palaniswami for the first two years as AMMK leader T T V Dhinakaran unleashed sustained attacks on the government by pulling MLAs from the AIADMK and the rug from under Palaniswami’s feet. DMK chief M K Stalin’s decision to wait till the
EPS
government crumbled under its own weight aided Palaniswami for good measure. Finally, it took a mini general election to the assembly in 2019 for Palaniswami to stabilise his government. Palaniswami, since then, has graduated in the art of political brinkmanship.
From what looked like a virtual sweep for the DMK against a highly unpopular AIADMK government until about a year ago, the ground situation has changed. With a slew of populist schemes such as doling out cash to people during the pandemic, Rs 1,715 crore compensation for farmers affected by natural calamities, farm loan waiver of Rs 12,110 crore and launching a series of irrigation infrastructure projects, EPS has earned some pan-Tamil Nadu acceptance of late. He has sought to appease government employees and teachers, numbering more than 12 lakh, by extending their retirement age to 60. And finally, to appease the PMK, he announced an internal reservation of 10.5% for vanniyars. The AIADMK front is all set to put up a tough fight with the DMK front.
The DMK front, on the other hand, is a formidable force and has proven its strength by winning 38 of the 39 Lok Sabha seats in the 2019 general elections. None of the allies, whether it be the Congress, CPI, CPM, MDMK, VCK, IUML or the Kongunadu Makkal Desiya Katchi, is posing threats to the Dravidian major, at least outwardly. Many of them have even resigned to the fact that their candidates would have to contest on the DMK’s rising sun symbol. With a series of outreach programmes, Stalin has been interacting with the electorate across the state for several months. Going by the crowd he attracts, the opposition seems to have more than an edge. Peaking too early into the campaign could make the alliance complacent though as it happened in 2016.
As things stand today, the northern districts, dominated by vanniyars and dalits, may throw up a mixed result as the dalit-dominated VCK is with the DMK and vanniyar-dominated PMK is with the AIADMK. The western gounder belt, which routed the DMK in the 2016 assembly elections, continues to pose major challenges to the DMK front as the AIADMK has transformed into a gounder-dominated party after Jayalalithaa’s demise. Of the 72 constituencies in the western belt, gounders are the deciding factor in 54 seats. The central districts, dominated by the farming community, has been a traditional bastion of the DMK. The AIADMK, however, has sought to make inroads into this fort with a series of farmer-centric welfare schemes. The southern districts, with considerable presence of minorities, both Christians and Muslims, pose a challenge for the AIADMK front. The presence of the BJP in the front could impact the AIADMK's prospects there. To add to its worries, V K Sasikala and her thevar community could split pro-AIADMK votes.