Tamil Nadu elections: Caste arithmetic, DMK alliance give Thol Thirumavalavan an edge

CHENNAI: When VCK chief Thol Thirumavalavan decided it was time to shift to state assembly, Kattumannarkoil in Cuddalore district was the automatic choice.

Located at the tail end of the Cauvery basin, the rural agrarian segment was part of Chidambaram Lok Sabha constituency that sent him to Parliament three times—in 2009, 2019 and 2024. VCK men say that Kattumannarkoil was the best bet for him. "In 2024 LS election, Thiruma got 50,000 votes more than AIADMK's M Chandrahasan here,'' says a VCK functionary. The surge was attributed to the combined strength of DMK-VCK alliance and Thirumavalavan's grassroots connect.

VCK is also banking on DMK govt's moves such as unveiling dalit leader Illayaperumal memorial and statue, and completing the Veeranam project to improve water supply for agricultural activities in the region.

This time, he will face Dr Anbu Cholan, fielded by Anbumani Ramadoss's PMK. The two faced off in 2016 Assembly polls and were both defeated by AIADMK candidate N Murugumaran. VCK men say the defeat was because Thirumavalavan was part of Makkal Nala Kootani, the third front in 2016. But now, all the parties in the erstwhile Makkal Nala Kootani, except Tamil Maanila Congress, are in the DMK front.

VCK feels that dalits, who account for more than 35% of the electorate, would back Thirumavalavan en masse. In addition, there are roughly 35,000 Muslim voters who would favour the DMK front. "Muslims are the deciding factor in our constituency,'' said Abdul Rahman, a tour operator from Lalpet.

Though the constituency has a sizeable vanniyar population, the ongoing rift between the senior and junior Ramadoss is expected to split the community's votes.

Also, DMK heavyweight M R K Panneerselvam, a vanniyar who hails from Kattumannarkoil, could sway the community's votes towards VCK.

PMK's Anbu Cholan too is considered a ‘good' candidate, but faces an uphill task, say political observers. Even functionaries of AIADMK are apprehensive. "Thirumavalavan is a popular leader and it's a tough challenge,'' said an AIADMK functionary.

AIADMK men say the party high command ceded the seat to PMK, denying the seat to ticket aspirant N Murugamaran, has caused discontent among a section of the cadres. "If Murugamaran had been fielded here, he would have given a fight to the VCK leader," said another partyman.

More than the prospects of Thirumavalavan, what has puzzled many is his decision to contest in the election, resigning as Lok Sabha MP. Though Thirumavalavan has said he wants to focus more on state politics, political observers feel the move was an indication of an impending shift in Tamil Nadu's political landscape after elections.