UP poll results may have impact in Karnataka: Analysts

BENGALURU: Results of assembly polls in five states – scheduled on Thursday – could have a “far-reaching” impact on politics in Karnataka, political analysts and politicians say. They believe it will also have a direct bearing on BBMP elections, likely later this year, and next year’s assembly polls.BJP has plenty riding on Uttar Pradesh, the most populous state and with 403 assembly seats. Results here generally define the political narrative in the country.TRS supremo and Telangana chief minister K Chandrasekhar Rao, who has held meetings with a section of opposition leaders apparently with an eye on the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, also spoke to JD(S) supremo HD Deve Gowda over the phone. An adverse result in UP for BJP could alter the number game in Karnataka, bringing into play fence-sitters, mainly from JD(S).The results are expected to trigger widespread defections across parties. Several sitting and former MLAs of the three major parties – BJP, Congress and JD(S) – are already in talks with senior functionaries of rival parties, seeking to shift loyalties in the hope of landing electorally greener pastures.Analysts believe party hopping will intensify once results are announced since this will indicate which way the wind is blowing.“If exit polls are any indication, BJP appears to be sitting pretty,” said Sandeep Shastri, a political analyst. “Yet, the politics of a south Indian state is very different. If the Congress does not do too well in the five states, there will be tremendous pressure on the party to try and wrest Karnataka from the BJP.”Shastri added: “Will the national-level Congress leadership be able to galvanize its state units like Karnataka should it suffer a reversal of fortunes in the polls is the big question.”Ravindra Reshme, another political analyst, said: “If Thursday’s outcome confirms the trend indicated by exit polls, then it would certainly have repercussions on Karnataka’s BJP government. A victory in UP with a heavily reduced margin will prompt the central leadership to opt for an overhaul either of the cabinet or the state unit of the party or both.”However, senior Congress and JD(S) functionaries say the results will not have any major impact on assembly elections in the state since the narrative, issues and politics are entirely different from northern states.