Caste dynamics, for long, has played a pivotal role in shaping electoral outcomes in Karnataka, a trend observed in other states as well. Each of the three major political parties claims significant support from at least one dominant caste or community, but the key to success lies in garnering support from a broader spectrum of communities. Ahead of Lok Sabha elections, the political landscape resembles a strategic game of chess, with caste considerations set to evolve compared to equations witnessed during last year’s assembly polls.
Dominant castesWhile Lingayats hold sway in North Karnataka, Vokkaligas dominate Old Mysore region. Scheduled Castes and Tribes are spread throughout the state, but Kalyana Karnataka has a higher concentration of these communities.
Ahinda’s influenceDespite the dominance of Vokkaligas and Lingayats, Siddaramaiah, a backward Kuruba leader, managed to clinch the chief minister’s post twice owing to his stronghold over the Ahinda vote bank. Ahinda, a Kannada acronym for the conglomerate of minorities, backward classes, and Dalits, proved instrumental in ensuring victories for Congress in both 2013 and 2023. Siddaramaiah championed their cause, advocating for social justice measures in both political and administrative spheres.
The big shift in 2023The caste equation changed dramatically in the 2023 assembly polls, with Congress securing support of not only Ahinda, but also from Lingayats and Vokkaligas, contributing significantly to its victory.
Caste census reportWhile initially viewed as potentially advantageous by the Congress govt, publication of the report had to be postponed after the govt faced a severe backlash from both Lingayats and Vokkaligas. A leaked version of the report in 2018 suggested that populations of these communities were lower than estimated. Fearful of the potential impact in govt quotas and cabinet positions, both communities opposed the release of the survey. The electoral outcome will shed light on the extent of influence or damage to their prospects.
Pattern changes for Lok Sabha pollsJD(S), a strong force in Old Mysuru region, aligning with BJP has laid the foundation for another shift. JD(S) traditionally enjoys support of Vokkaligas, but failed to garner overwhelming support from the community in the 2023 assembly polls, largely due to DK Shivakumar’s aspiration of becoming CM. Now, BJP aims to lead among Lingayats and Vokkaligas, the two dominant castes, while Congress is projected to lead among SCs, STs, Kurubas, and Muslims.
Historical contextVokkaligas, a prominent landholding community, held sway within Congress in the former Mysore state. However, following the state’s unification, Lingayats rose to prominence, dominating Congress and occupying chief ministerial positions until the late 1970s. The balance shifted significantly in 1990 when Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi dismissed chief minister Veerendra Patil after a communal riot, prompting Lingayats to switch allegiance to BJP. It also paved the way for the emergence of HD Deve Gowda and his Janata Dal, which garnered Vokkaliga backing, leading to its emergence as a prominent player.