Karnataka chief ministerial tussle set to intensify after May 4 results

Bengaluru: The tussle for the chief minister's post is expected to intensify after the May 4 results to assembly elections in Assam, Kerala, Puducherry, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal besides bypolls to Davanagere South and Bagalkot, even though the outcomes have no direct bearing on the stability of the state govt. Within Karnataka Congress, the results are being seen as a signal that could influence internal equations, especially between CM Siddaramaiah and his deputy DK Shivakumar, who is also Congress state president. Functionaries say the post-result phase could be a crucial window for Shivakumar to renew his claim to the top post, with just over two years left in the govt's tenure. "Leadership questions tend to resurface when the party is recalibrating after major electoral outcomes," a senior functionary said. Meanwhile, Siddaramaiah's camp has stepped up its pitch for a cabinet revamp, a move seen by observers as an attempt to consolidate administrative control and reset political messaging ahead of the 2028 assembly elections. About 30 MLAs aligned with Siddaramaiah have been camping in Delhi, seeking fresh faces in the cabinet. Parallelly, another team aligned with Shivakumar is planning to go to Delhi after poll results are announced to press for a CM change. A cabinet revamp could significantly alter Congress' internal balance. "There is no threat to the govt, but symbolic shifts matter in politics," said MN Patil, a political analyst. "A cabinet rejig at this stage can strengthen the incumbent and delay or dilute any leadership transition." Publicly, both camps have avoided direct confrontation. Siddaramaiah has maintained that the party will abide by the high command's decision, while Shivakumar has emphasised party discipline. However, periodic statements by their supporters have kept speculation alive. Analysts also note that the May 4 results, though geographically distant, could serve as a barometer of Congress's national standing and influence internal decision-making in Karnataka. A strong performance may embolden sections within the party, while a setback could prompt calls for continuity and stability in leadership. Both Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar command distinct support bases — the CM among Ahinda groups and DCM among Vokkaligas and organisational ranks — and the coming month is expected to test party brass' ability to manage competing ambitions without affecting governance. For now, the high command's stance is to "wait and watch".