Congress, BJP spin guarantees’ FORTUNE WHEEL

Another election is here and ‘guarantees’ appear the flavour of the season. The battle — at least in the state — appears to be boiling down to one of promises, with both Congress and BJP adopting strategies revolving around these schemes.


Congress, confident after implementing its five guarantees, has been banking largely on these promises, besides others such as persistent accusations of economic injustice being meted out by the Centre to Karnataka.
Chief minister Siddaramaiah, pushing the northsouth divide rhetoric, had led a delegation to Delhi to protest the issue of unfair devolution of taxes and the state assembly subsequently passed a resolution castigating the Centre.

Many factors may have weighed in on the decision to make guarantees the main poll issue in Karnataka, primary among them being Congress’ prospects in other states. For instance, the rhetoric that Uttar Pradesh is eating into Karnataka’s development may work well in local elections but could cost the party dearly in the northern state.


Recently, deputy CM and KPCC president DK Shivakumar recited his own Kannada poem that translates to: “Five fingers make a fist. Five guarantees make the Hand (Cong) strong. With five guarantees, the petals of the Lotus (BJP) withered. And the Lady Farmer (JDS) dropped the bundle of paddy.”


The govt even formed a ‘Guarantee Schemes Implementation Authority’ complete with a president and four vice-presidents at the state-level and committees at the district and taluk-level to oversee roll out of its schemes. Congress women wing president Pushpa Amarnath, also a vice-president of the authority, told TOI that the principal objective is to ensure no beneficiary is left out. “On average, the schemes have reached more than 85% of beneficiaries,” she said.


Shivakumar, leveraging this, said: “All office bearers of the authority will be given election responsibilities too.” Siddaramaiah, whose Feb 16 budget earmarked Rs 54,000 crore for guarantees, has used many guarantee conventions for stump speeches.


On the other hand, BJP is banking on the charisma and rhetoric of PM Narendra Modi, positioning itself as the party of ‘Modi ki Guarantee’ – a guarantee of “development, progress, and decisive leadership”. It plans to particularly showcase promises that the PM has already fulfilled.


V Sunil Kumar, BJP state general secretary and cam paign committee convener, told TOI: “In this guarantees vs guarantees battle, we’ll show voters how Congress is robbing the same families it’s claiming to be assisting. While they give meagre benefits, they’re hurting families by increasing stamp duty, liquor prices and milk prices just to name a few. Compared to that, PM Modi has delivered by providing gas cylinders and tap water and building homes.”


BJP did not go the guarantees way during last year’s assembly elections, but it did leverage schemes during subsequent elections in five states — Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Mizoram — lending some importance to Congress’ “guarantees” mantra by countering it with ‘Modi ki Guarantee’. In those battles, Congress’ benefit-push campaign worked only in Telangana. Now, to counter ‘Modi ki Guarantee’, Congress has announced 25 new guarantees — five each under the five ‘Nyay Pillars’ — at the national level, in line with Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra.


One could draw parallels of this electoral dynamic of guarantees gaining pan-India status with the unexpected success of Kannada movie ‘Kantara’. Just as ‘Kantara’ transcended its regional origins and captured the imagination of a broader audience, the Karnataka model of guarantees has shown the potential to shape national political discourse.


But just as with movies, electoral strategies lend themselves better to post-result analysis that affords the luxury of hindsight. To predict voter behaviour is best avoided.

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