N Gujarat voters holding cards close to chest

AHMEDABAD: Despite a stronganti-incumbency factor in play, soaring level of unemployment, nearly four yearsof crop failure and a favourable atmosphere for the party, it may not be easyfor the Congress to dislodge the BJP in North Gujarat.The BJP had wrested22 out of the 29 seats in Banaskantha, Sabarkantha, Mehsana and Patan districtsin the 1998 elections. In most places, it was a second and in a few, it was thethird consecutive victory for the BJP.The voters in north Gujarat,however, seem to be in a dilemma this time around, even as they show awillingness to usher in change. But the Congress has once again goofed up in theselection of candidates, giving boost to the prospects of Independents at acouple of places and fomenting discontent within the party, thus giving a clearedge to the BJP at a number of places. The Congress leaders here, however,put up a brave front. "Let''s first get the show on the road. It''s rather tooearly to say how many seats will we be able to win. But the people seem to havechosen to be with the Congress this time," says former Union deputy financeminister B K Gadhvi.But when asked about the poll scene in this borderdistrict, even the BJP workers didn''t seem very confident about bagging theDanta and Vadgam seats. They, however, are hopeful about the Vav-Tharad seat,which is presently controlled by the Congress. As regards the prestigiousDeodar and Palanpur seats, strong Independents with favourable caste-equationscould harm Congress'' prospects. As the BJP has been winning the Deesa, Dhaneraand Kankarej seats in the last two elections, the contest here might not be asclose. The two seats of Kankarej and Dhanera especially will be acakewalk.Congress leaders, however, blame the state leadership for thefaux pas in candidate selection and said they were never consulted. "Centralobserver Bhagraj Chaudhary gave partisan reports and has caused a lot ofheart-burn," said a top leader.Meanwhile, BJP leader Gordhanji Mali, whowill be contesting for the third time from Deesa, sees a saffron surge inBanaskantha, and anticipates problems only on a couple of seats. "Our workspeaks for us. Look at the roads, water supply, electricity and other facilitiesthat we have provided. The Congress was never able to do that. Besides, thistime irrespective of caste equations people are with us," he claims.BJPleaders also expect their prospects to be good in the adjoining Patan district.But, Radhanpur which shot to limelight after Shankersinh Vaghela won the seatand has been with the BJP for the last two times, may become a battle-groundonce again as casteism is going to play a major role here. While BJP candidateShanker Chaudhary claims dominance in the Radhanpur town, Congress'' LavingjiThakore claims that he has the support of 40,000 Thakores voters.In theneighbouring Sami-Harij constituency, BJP candidate Dilip Thakore and his fatherhave retained the seat for the last five terms. The Congress, therefore, banksheavily on the anti-incumbency factor here, that could benefit Vaghela''shigh-profile son Mahendrasinh. Congress'' Jodhaji Thakore in the rural Vagdodconstituency and BJP''s Narandas Lallubhai Patel in Unjha are seen as comfortablyplaced, even in the rival camps. Three seats of Patan, Sidhpur andChanasma, considered as a BJP stronghold, however, appear to be all set for avery interesting poll battle as the Congress has bright prospects here and anadvantage after having fielded local candidates. In the absence of a strong wavein favour of any party in the rural areas, North Gujarat might just springsurprises.