Southbound Pachyderm: BSP faces elephantine challenge in 3rd phase

AGRA: The Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), showcasing its influence in the initial phases of the Uttar Pradesh Lok Sabha elections, now braces for a daunting task in the third of the seven-phase elections encompassing 10 seats in western UP and the Rohilkhand region. BSP has historically faltered in securing victories in these constituencies, presenting a formidable challenge ahead.

Since its peak in 2007, BSP’s electoral performance has been on a downward trajectory (see graphic). The 2014 general elections saw the BSP emerge as the third-largest national party in terms of vote percentage, but without a win in a single seat. In the 2019 Lok Sabha election, BSP in alliance with SP registered won 10 seats, all from UP.
Despite this, the unwavering support of the Jatav community maintains BSP’s significance in UP politics. On May 10, Sambhal, Hathras, Agra, Fatehpur Sikri, Firozabad, Mainpuri, Etah, Badaun, Aonla, and Bareilly, will go to the polls, with BSP contesting on nine seats. Key constituencies like Mainpuri, Firozabad and Etah lean heavily on Yadav and OBC votes respectively, posing formidable challenges.
The third phase hinges significantly on Muslim and OBC votes, constituencies where BSP has placed its contenders. However, hurdles loom large due to the Yadav stronghold and a dearth of vote bank cadre. BSP’s plight in Bareilly is exacerbated as its candidate’s nomination stands rejected, effectively removing them from contention. Previously, in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, BSP secured victories in Sambhal and Fatehpur Sikri.
While Agra and Fatehpur boast significant Dalit voter bases, Firozabad, Badaun and Mainpuri present tough contests with candidates closely associated with SP chief Akhilesh Yadav. Despite the hurdles, BSP remains cautious in candidate selection.
In a strategic move, BSP challenges the SP-Congress alliance in Sambhal, Aonla, Etah, Firozabad, and Budaun by fielding Muslim candidates. Nonetheless, victories in these seats have historically eluded the party.
The disqualification of BSP’s candidate in Bareilly tilts the scales in favour of BJP, particularly as the Gangwar vote bank holds sway. In Agra, BSP’s nomination of Pooja Amrohi, daughter of veteran Congress leader Satya Behn, adds intrigue to the contest. In Fatehpur Sikri, nomination of a Brahmin candidate spices up electoral dynamics. Mainpuri witnesses BSP’s challenge with a Yadav candidate, potentially disrupting SP candidate Dimple Yadav’s prospects.