Not just India & China, EU too faces US threat

NEW DELHI: US President Donald Trump's approval to a new bill that allows for up to 500% tariff on countries importing Russian petroleum is a threat not just for China and India, but even others, such as the European Union, which have opposed Moscow's offensive against Ukraine but have been buying energy.

An analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) has estimated that since the Ukraine conflict began in Feb 2022, Russia earned 1,002 billion euros (around $1.2 trillion at current exchange rate) from fossil fuel exports, with oil's share being 68% and the rest being gas (over 20%) and coal (over 10%).




While China was the largest importer of Russian oil, with purchases exceeding 210 billion euros (around $245 billion) until Monday, India was second - spending $168 billion, followed by EU $125 billion (see graph).

China's cumulative spend on Russian fossil fuels was estimated at nearly 294 billion euros ($343 billion), while India spent over 162 billion euros ($190 billion) on oil and coal. According to CREA's monthly analysis of Russian fossil fuel exports and sanctions, China's crude oil imports fell to 3.1 billion euros in Nov from 3.7 billion euros in Oct, while India's imports rose marginally to 2.6 billion euros in Nov from 2.5 billion euros in Oct.

Now, all eyes are on what Trump does next. Many see the US action as fresh pressure to get Russia on the negotiating table and agree to the terms being pushed by him.

Energy policy and geopolitics expert Narendra Taneja said the new US bill has only been passed by the US Congress and does not necessarily mean it will be implemented by the administration. "We should wait and watch," Taneja said.

So far, India has focused on its commercial interests while making purchases, including from Russia whose share in the Indian oil basket has reduced but it remains the biggest source for crude. With Lukoil and Rosneft facing sanctions, Indian purchases from Russia are expected to moderate.