US strikes Venezuela: What it means for oil supply and prices? Impact on India

As the United States carried out strikes on Venezuela on Saturday, global oil markets are closely watching for any fallout, though early signals point to limited disruption so far.

Venezuela holds some of the world’s largest proven oil reserves, raising concerns that military action could disrupt global price movements. However, crude markets have remained subdued as the country’s oil exports were already constrained by US sanctions, limiting its role in global supply chains.


According to Reuters, Venezuela’s state-run energy company PDVSA said oil production and refining operations were running normally, and that its most important facilities had not suffered damage from the US attacks. Two sources, quoted by Reuters, familiar with PDVSA’s operations said the country’s key oil infrastructure remained unaffected.

Reuters also reported that the port of La Guaira near Caracas suffered severe damage during the attacks, though the port is not used for oil exports.

For India, the impact is expected to be minimal, according to former Indian Ambassador to Venezuela R Viswanathan told ANI that India is not dependent on Venezuelan oil and that trade between the two countries remains limited. He added that India has some investment through ONGC in Venezuelan oil fields, but the developments are unlikely to affect India in any significant way.

"It was not a surprise... this is not the first time he had threatened. When he was President for the first time, at that time also he had threatened Venezuela... This time he has sent the warships and he has authorized the CIA... No, it will not affect India," he said.

Further explaining his stance, he added, "We are not dependent on Venezuela for oil. Our trade is very little and we have some investment by ONGC in their oil fields... So, this is not going to affect India in any big way."

US President Donald Trump said American forces had captured President Nicolás Maduro following months of pressure over allegations of drug trafficking and illegitimacy in power. However, after the attacks, Trump announced that US is going to be heavily involved in the Venezuela's oil industry. ""We have ‌the greatest oil companies in the world, the biggest, ‍the greatest, and ‍we're going ⁠to ⁠be very much involved in it," he told Fox News.

Before this, in December, Trump had announced a blockade of oil tankers entering or leaving Venezuela, a move that has already weighed heavily on the country’s crude exports.

The US seizure of two Venezuelan oil cargoes and the tanker blockade reduced Venezuela’s exports last month to about half of the 950,000 barrels per day it shipped in November, as reporter by Reuters earlier. The measures have also prompted many vessel owners to divert away from Venezuelan waters, forcing PDVSA to store crude on tankers and slow deliveries at ports. At the time, global data and analytics firm Kpler had said the market remains well supplied, even within sanctioned segments, limiting the price impact of further disruptions.

Kpler estimated Venezuela currently produces about 900,000 barrels per day of crude and condensate, roughly 1 per cent of global supply. Of the approximately 765,000 barrels per day that Venezuela exports, about 76 per cent is shipped to China, mainly to independent refiners, as state-owned companies avoided sanctioned cargoes.