TOI Budget 2018: Modi government's subsidy agenda in for a change?

NEW DELHI: Announcing a bevy of subsidies ahead of elections has always been a trump card of sorts for finance ministers across different regimes. Since coming to power, the Modi government has been rather conservative as far as doling out subsidies are concerned. The percentage of subsidies to total expenditure dropped from 15.52 per cent in 2014-15 to 11.2 per cent in 2017-18. The share of subsidies touched its peak in 2012-13, just a couple of years before the 2014 general elections.


But,

finance minister

Arun Jaitley might choose to chart a different path in this year's budget after the recent Gujarat poll verdict. The ruling BJP got a somewhat raw deal in the rural areas of Gujarat. Moreover, states like Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh and Rajasthan are poll bound ahead of the 2019 general election and all these states have witnessed farmer agitation in the recent past.

(Read full report: Election season may mean return of subsidy bounty)

There is a strong buzz that Finance Minister Arun Jaitley may present a budget which is more farmer-centric, focussing on getting them remunerative prices through market reforms, credit facilities and increase in crop insurance footprint. This would then result in an increase in the share of subsidies.

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Upon tabling the economic survey on Monday, chief economic adviser Arvind Subramanian too listed

agriculture

as one of the focus areas for the next fiscal year.

(Read here: Time is running out for Modi government to shore up the support of rural voters)
If the government, indeed focuses on subsidies for the rural sector, it might also mean that the word 'agriculture' will continue to feature consistently in the budget speech. Till the mid-1960s, the term "agriculture" rarely featured in the budget speeches. This only changed after Lal Bahadur Shastri's "Jai Jawan, Jai Kisan" slogan in 1965 but the agriculture agenda featured erratically in budget speeches thereafter till the turn of this century. Since then, the rural sector lexicon has been popular with finance ministers. With the Modi government vowing to 'double' farmers' income by 2022, the trend might well continue. (For detailed wordplay, check out the dropdown list above)