India-US trade deal: Exports may push New Delhi's trade surplus with Washington to over $90 billion, says SBI report

India's trade surplus with the United States could exceed $90 billion annually, according to a new report by SBI. This growth has been driven by rising exports and higher import potential.

Indian exporters could boost their top 15 items' exports to the US by $97 billion yearly, with total exports potentially crossing $100 billion annually after recent tariff reductions.




"India's Trade surplus with the US may thus cross USD 90 bn annually.......As per our preliminary estimates, Indian exporters may increase their exports of the top 15 items to the US by approx. USD 97 billion in a year," the report stated, as cited by ANI. The falling tariffs open up new opportunities for Indian exporters to grab a bigger slice of the US market.

The trade surplus is already showing strong signs of growth. It reached $40.9 billion in FY25 and $26 billion in FY26 (April-December). The extra export push could help push the surplus beyond $90 billion yearly, potentially adding 1.1 per cent to India's GDP.

Currently, the US makes up about 20 per cent of India's exports but only 7 per cent of its imports. In services imports, the US share is just 15 per cent. This gap suggests India remains an untapped market for US goods and services.

On the import side, India has committed to buying $500 billion worth of US goods over the next five years. The US could potentially export more than $50 billion worth of goods to India yearly, not counting services. Import values could rise by $55 billion as India agrees to cut or remove tariffs on US industrial goods and agricultural products.

Some US products already have a strong presence in Indian imports, with shares between 20-40 per cent. For instance, the US supplies 90 per cent of India's almond imports. The tariff cuts could help India save $100-150 million in foreign exchange on these items alone. Total foreign exchange savings from reduced or zero import duties could reach $3 billion, with potential for even more through import substitution.