GST reforms: Government may lose Rs 10,664-crore in IGST receipts; GTRI flags import-linked shortfall

The Central government may lose around Rs 10,664 crore in Integrated Goods and Services Tax (IGST) revenues after the latest round of GST rate rationalisation, according to an assessment by the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI).The think tank’s report offered a closer look at how the revised tax rates are expected to play out on imports. It said, “the combined effect of cuts and hikes produces a net shortfall of about Rs 10,664 crore in IGST receipts.”Imports remain a critical source of GST income. In 2024-25, levies on imported goods alone brought in Rs 5,33,000 crore, roughly 24% of the Centre’s overall GST takings of Rs 22,08,861 crore. Because IGST is charged directly at the border, GTRI noted that customs data provides the clearest picture of how tax changes will affect revenues, as per news agency ANI.India’s merchandise imports for the year were valued at $721.2 billion. Of this, the new GST slabs apply to goods worth $88.78 billion, covering about 12.3% of the total import basket.The report breaks this down into two categories. Goods worth $55.2 billion now attract lower GST, which will shrink IGST receipts from Rs 92,280 crore to Rs 42,956 crore, a loss of Rs 49,324 crore. At the same time, tax increases on imports worth $33.5 billion will push collections up from Rs 21,923 crore to Rs 60,590 crore, adding Rs 38,660 crore to the government’s coffers.Taken together, the losses and profits leave a net gap of Rs 10,664 crore in IGST receipts, ANI cited the report.GTRI highlighted that these numbers reflect only imports but still provide the most reliable insight into the broader economic effects of the GST Council’s decision.The report further observed that a lack of publicly available product-level domestic GST data makes it difficult to calculate the full impact at home. Even so, with imports contributing nearly a quarter of total GST revenues, shifts in IGST flows serve as a strong pointer to how the new rates will shape both government finances and economic activity.