Gold, silver rate outlook: Will Trump tariffs and Middle East tensions drive next leg of rally?

Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and renewed global trade uncertainty following US President Donald Trump’s tariff decisions are expected to keep gold and silver prices on an upward trajectory next week, analysts said.Investors have increasingly moved towards safe-haven assets amid volatility triggered by fresh tariff measures and escalating global risks, with market participants now closely watching upcoming economic indicators for further cues.Key data points include the US Producer Price Index (PPI), consumer confidence readings, weekly initial jobless claims and the People’s Bank of China’s lending rate decision, analysts noted.“Markets are awaiting the US producer price index (PPI), housing data, consumer confidence, regional Fed indicators, and the People's Bank of China's prime rate decision,” Choice Broking said, as quoted news agency PTI.The brokerage firm said escalating geopolitical risks and Trump’s decision to raise global tariffs after the US Supreme Court’s ruling have revived trade uncertainties and strengthened demand for bullion as a defensive asset.On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), silver futures climbed Rs 8,584, or 3.5 per cent, over the past week, while gold advanced Rs 981, or nearly 1 per cent.“Gold prices traded in a narrow range during the week ended February 20, as MCX gold fluctuated between Rs 1.5-1.6 lakh per 10 grams. Softer US data and rising geopolitical risks pushed prices higher, with investors priced in the possibility of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve,” said Prathamesh Mallya, DVP - Research, Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies, Angel One.Mallya added that renewed tensions in the Middle East, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and broader market volatility have driven investors towards gold as a hedge against uncertainty.“Overall, the risk-off sentiment remained in precious metals in this week. We expect gold prices might move higher towards Rs 1.61 lakh per 10 grams,” he said.Choice Broking noted that increased post-Lunar New Year liquidity and firm industrial demand from solar and aluminium sectors also supported silver’s performance.In international markets, Comex silver futures rose USD 4.38, or 5.62 per cent, to USD 82.34 per ounce during the week, while gold gained USD 34.6, or nearly 1 per cent, to close at USD 5,080.9.“Gold ended the week on a strong note, breaking above USD 5,080 per ounce after a landmark Supreme Court of the United States ruling against global tariffs reignited volatility and safe-haven demand. The ruling, combined with mounting US-Iran tensions, has reintroduced a geopolitical risk premium that spurred silver's rebound,” Choice Broking said.The brokerage added that although the dollar initially weakened to 97.8, it rebounded after Trump announced a 10 per cent global tariff through executive order and later raised tariffs to 15 per cent, keeping investors wary and bullion supported.“Additional support came from heightened tensions in the Middle East, including a significant US military deployment near Iran, which further lifted bullion's appeal,” it added.