Trump's climate retreat shines light on green leaders

PARIS: The United States withdrawing from the Paris Agreement is a blow to global cooperation on climate change, but other countries are marching ahead and stepping up leadership on the issue.

China is dominating the clean energy race, Brazil will be steering global climate negotiations, Denmark has approved a world-first tax on livestock emissions and Colombia is saying farewell to fossil fuels.

There are fears the US retreat, announced by President Donald Trump on Monday, will hinder global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

But some observers also see a chance for more ambitious countries to forge new alliances, set the agenda and champion a climate deal endorsed by nearly all nations.

"It's a bigger pact than just the United States," said Frances Colon, a senior fellow from the Center for American Progress, a Washington-based policy institute.

Emerging players

One of these emerging leaders is Brazil, which this year is hosting one of the most important UN climate summits since the Paris accord was adopted in 2015.

President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has positioned himself as a global flag-bearer for the environment, and since taking office deforestation in the Amazon has fallen impressively.

But he also wants to expand Brazil's oil exploration, complicating its image as COP30 host.

Along with South Africa, which is hosting the G20 this year, Brazil is expected to shape a global reform agenda that demands climate and development goals go hand in glove.

"This could be a year for Global South leadership," said Tim Sahay, co-director of the Net Zero Industrial Policy Lab at Johns Hopkins University.

India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi in December boasted of his country's "leadership" rolling out solar and wind energy.

"India is setting global standards in climate action," he said on X.

Renewable power

China's economic contribution to reducing global emissions -- the chief purpose of the Paris Agreement -- is already unrivalled.

The country produces more than half the world's electric vehicles, about 70 percent of its wind turbines, and 80 percent of solar panels, helping drastically cut the cost of low-carbon technologies.

On Tuesday, China announced it had installed a record amount of renewable energy in 2024 and vowed to "work with all parties to actively address the challenges of climate change".

As political headwinds frustrate global climate action, "China's performance in advancing and deploying green technologies might become the saving grace", said Li Shuo, director of the China climate hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute.

China already flexes considerable diplomatic muscle in global climate negotiations, informally leading a major developing country bloc.

At the same time, China is responsible for the overwhelming majority of the growth in planet-warming emissions since the Paris Agreement was inked.

It will soon overtake the European Union as the second-largest historic polluter, behind the United States, and could feel less pressure under Trump to take more ambitious action.

Old guard

The EU has a long history of climate leadership and slashed its emissions 7.5 percent between 2022 and 2023 -- streets ahead of any other nation or bloc.

The 27-nation bloc is also the largest contributor of climate finance to poorer countries, outspending all other wealthy nations.

"The Paris agreement continues to be the best hope of all humanity. So Europe will stay the course, and keep working with all nations that want to protect nature and stop global warming," EU chief Ursula von der Leyen said on Tuesday.

During the last Trump presidency, the EU and China launched a climate dialogue with Canada to ensure unwavering high-level support for the Paris Agreement while the United States was outside the process.

Strong leadership will again be needed to rally momentum, said Alex Scott, a senior associate at Italian climate think tank ECCO.

"The EU and China could collaboratively provide that geopolitical pole," she told AFP.

But the EU is preoccupied with its own domestic problems, including political swings to anti-climate parties, while Beijing is locked in a trade spat with Brussels over its tax on carbon-intensive imports.

Green agenda

A slew of other countries, from economic giants to tiny Caribbean islands, are eager to broadcast their climate bona fides.

The UK -- where Energy Secretary Ed Miliband promised in November to "make Britain a climate leader again" -- produced its cleanest electricity on record in 2024.

Denmark has approved a tax on agricultural emissions, Barbados and Kenya are pushing for global financial reforms to drive investment in developing countries, and Colombia has vowed to stop extracting fossil fuels -- its largest export earner.

Scott said "countries who've made a bet on investing in the economy of the future with green tech and green jobs will continue to make that bet because it's in their best interests".