Trump walks deal, talks bombs as Islamabad meet hangs in air; US and Iran play travel chicken

TOI correspondent from Washington: Increasingly seen as an agent of chaos even by his own base, US President Donald Trump on Tuesday said he expects to achieve “a great deal” with Iran after a second round of talks in Pakistan on Wednesday while at the same time saying he also “expects“ to return to bombing if the mission does not succeed. There was continued suspense as of Tuesday noon on whether vice president JD Vance had even left for Islamabad or whether he would go at all given the wide gap in expectations between the two sides.

In a series of often contradictory remarks in more than half dozen interviews over the past 48 hours, the latest one a phone-in with CNBC, Trump blew hot and cold, sometimes lambasting Iran and sometimes praising it, as he sought to alternately bully and cajole Tehran into turning up in Islamabad to cut a deal.



"Iran can get themselves in a very good footing if they make a deal. They can make themselves into a strong nation again, a wonderful nation again. They have incredible people. But they seem to be blood thirsty, led by extremely (negatively) tough people," he rambled in the CNBC interview, offering to talk beyond the 20-minutes his staff allotted for the phone-in. The US President has called or responded to calls from at least six reporters since Sunday amid jokes on late-night circuits about how journalists are now putting their phone on do-not-disturb.

The jokes aside, Washington and Tehran are playing a game of travel chicken, neither side having officially emplaned for Islamabad for talks just hours before their two-week ceasefire expires on Wednesday. Nor is there any sign they are anywhere near closing the wide gulf – in their demands, grievances, and expectations – that could end the conflict which has put enormous stress on the world economy.

Unless the US team has been spirited out of Washington DC and has already arrived undercover in Pakistan or somewhere nearby, there is no way it can reach Islamabad before Wednesday morning for talks. At the time of writing this report/ going for publication, there was no official announcement or confirmation of US VP JD Vance departing US despite numerous unofficial accounts saying he has left or is on his way.

Washington embarrassed itself repeatedly on Monday, flitting between Vance going, not going, going, will be going, and has gone – only for Vance's motorcade to pull up at the White House after some media outlets said he had left. Even if he flies non-stop, with mid-air refueling (which the Air Force Two is equipped for), the 15-hour flight to Islamabad will put Vance down in Islamabad earliest by noon on Wednesday. Unless of course, he has already left secretly.

Iran, with the advantage of sharing a border and therefor proximity to Pakistan, appeared to be waiting for the US veep to fly out before even committing to be at the talks – unless it intends to embarrass the US by not turning up, potentially inviting punitive strikes. Tehran has already let it be known that if Vance does not turn up, it will downgrade its delegation. It has also indicated it will not come to Islamabad unless its red lines are respected and if it continues to be threatened.

Despite the threat by the US President of having its civilisation annihilated and being bombed to the Stone Age, Tehran has not keeled over even as Trump has played havoc, repeatedly suggesting its leadership is divided and there has been a regime change. If anything, Iran has rejected talks "under coercion" and said it hasn't decided on attending a second round, with Iranian officials suggesting their delegation will leave only after Vance does. Tehran’s supporters have also voiced concern about the safety and well-being of its delegation if the talks do not go well, with one Iranian commentator describing how the delegation that took part in the first round of talks flew back on a decoy route and took a train from a border city in Iran to avoid any assassination attempt.

The mistrust and gap in perception and expectation between the two sides is so deep and wide that most analysts give very little chance for the Vance mission to succeed – assuming he goes and the talks take place at all.