About eight years ago, Barack Obama, after reading a series of unkind tweets about himself from Donald Trump on Jimmy Kimmel Live, responded to one critical tweet by quipping, "At least I will go down as a president."
This remark would come to haunt Democrats when Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in 2016. In the same election cycle, another infamous tweet was Hillary Clinton’s team celebrating her birthday with the message, “Happy birthday to the next president,” alongside a childhood photo of Clinton. That image continues to be used to mock the former Secretary of State to this day. Yet, it seems Democrats have not entirely left this approach behind, as Barack Obama recently referred to Kamala Harris as "the next president" at a rally in Georgia.
It is far from a foregone conclusion, however, and the close polling figures may be unsettling for Democrats. Kamala Harris and Trump are currently tied in the latest polling by The New York Times and Siena College, with each candidate holding 48 per cent of the popular vote. This narrow margin, coming just days before the election with many Americans having already voted, suggests a deeply divided electorate and has raised concerns within the Democratic ranks, as they have historically led in the popular vote, even in years when the Electoral College favoured the opposition. Harris’s modest lead has gradually diminished since early October, indicating potential hurdles in key swing states essential for securing the presidency.
Both candidates have maintained an intense campaign schedule across crucial battleground states such as Arizona, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. However, despite substantial investments in rallies and advertising, polling figures have largely remained static. Democrats, who had hoped Harris might expand her lead in the swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, are likely feeling uneasy at the apparent stalemate.
The latest poll paints a mixed picture for both candidates. Trump has gained traction with voters concerned about immigration, with 15 per cent now citing it as their primary issue. Capitalising on this sentiment, Trump has heavily criticised the Biden administration’s immigration policies, pledging sweeping reforms if elected. Meanwhile, Harris has made some headway on economic trust, narrowing Trump’s previous lead from a 13-point gap to just 6 points.
Although Harris currently holds an edge among undecided voters, leading 42 to 32 per cent, the race’s tight margins mean that any shifts in support over the coming days could significantly impact the outcome. A stark gender divide remains, with Harris leading among women and Trump among men, while both candidates' favourability ratings have shown little change.
Polling methods highlight the survey's scope, with responses from 2,516 likely voters and a margin of error of approximately 2.2 per cent, underscoring just how close the race truly is.
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