TL;DR: The US Congress’ own research arm, CRS, warns that Donald Trump’s second term is destabilising a relationship built over 25 years. Massive tariffs (50% on top of existing ones), claims of ending the May India-Pakistan conflict, and a White House lunch with Pakistan’s army chief have left Delhi frustrated. On top of this, America’s ability to deliver on tech and defense initiatives looks weaker, even as immigration and diaspora ties remain central. For Congress, the dilemma is whether to salvage a bipartisan strategic partnership or let Trump’s instincts on tariffs and Pakistan dictate US policyDonald Trump has never disguised his transactional approach to foreign policy. But in 2025, his behaviour toward India has crossed into something far more disruptive. He has claimed credit for ending a May India-Pakistan conflict (a claim Delhi flatly rejects). He has invited Pakistan’s army chief to lunch at the White House, prompting anger in Delhi that Washington is “treating India and Pakistan as equals.” And he has escalated a tariff war, leaving Indian exporters facing what the US Congressional Research Service (CRS) describes as a “50% tariff on India on top of existing tariffs.”
These are not Indian government talking points. They are the findings of CRS—a dry, nonpartisan research arm of the US Congress—in a briefing dated August 25, 2025. When CRS puts it in writing, Capitol Hill pays attention.
What CRS Is—and Why It Matters
The Congressional Research Service is Washington’s in-house think tank. Its analysts don’t campaign, give TV interviews, or spin headlines. They produce factual, nonpartisan reports that lawmakers rely on when voting on tariffs, arms sales, or oversight of the White House. A critical CRS report means that Congress is on alert—and the alarms are flashing red on India policy.
A Quarter Century of Investment, Undone
The CRS reminds lawmakers of the long, bipartisan effort since 2000 to build India into a pillar of US Indo-Pacific strategy:
- 2000: Bill Clinton’s ice-breaking trip to India.
- 2008: George W. Bush’s landmark civil nuclear deal.
- 2016: Barack Obama designates India a Major Defense Partner.
- 2017–2021: Trump’s first term helps institutionalise the Quad.
- 2021–2024: Joe Biden deepens the Indo-Pacific partnership.
But now, CRS bluntly states that “President Trump since May has taken actions that observers say put the partnership at risk.”
The Tariff Shock
At the centre of the rupture is economics. Using emergency powers, Trump imposed:
- A 25% India-specific tariff on August 7, targeting India’s oil imports from Russia.
- Another 25% tariff on August 27.
- Result: a 50% tariff, on top of existing duties.
For India, which had already reduced tariffs and withdrawn its digital services tax to smooth talks, this is a gut punch. After two decades of being courted as a trade partner, Washington has just doubled the barriers.
Playing Both Sides on Pakistan
CRS also revisits the May 2025 four-day war between India and Pakistan. Its finding is damning: “Indian officials… have expressed frustration that the President has treated India and Pakistan as equals—including by hosting Pakistan’s army chief to lunch at the White House—while Delhi holds Pakistan responsible for the terrorist attack that sparked the conflict.”
In other words, while Trump claims to be “tough on terror” domestically, his official record is one of legitimising the very military India blames for cross-border terrorism.
Tech and Defense: From Promise to Uncertainty
The fallout isn’t only diplomatic. It risks spilling into the two areas once touted as the “load-bearing pillars” of the partnership:
- Technology: After launching iCET in 2022, Trump rebranded it as the US-India TRUST initiative, covering AI and quantum computing. But CRS warns that “with staffing in President Trump’s NSC reportedly cut by half, experts expect US capacity to implement TRUST to wane.”
- Defense: India’s Major Defense Partner status has seen $24 billion in US arms sales and massive joint exercises. Yet the new 10-year framework is still unfinished, and tariffs risk poisoning the mood.
Immigration and Diaspora Concerns
The stakes extend to people, not just policy. CRS highlights:
- H-1B visas: Indians receive two-thirds of all annual issuances.
- Immigration: India is now the top origin country for US employment-based permanent residents.
- Students: India has overtaken China as the largest source of foreign students in the US
But friction remains: Washington has labelled India “recalcitrant” on deportations, and Congress is split on H-1B reform.
A Deeper Reading of CRS
Beyond the headlines, the CRS report offers a layered warning. It documents how India’s rise—now the world’s fourth-largest economy—made it a natural partner for successive US administrations, only for Trump’s second term to throw sand in the gears.
On trade, the report is explicit: Trump’s dual tariffs could leave India facing a 50% effective duty, an unprecedented escalation that Indian officials consider discriminatory since Europe was spared similar penalties. The report notes that this has already sparked calls in India to boycott American goods, a populist backlash that Modi has countered by doubling down on his “self-reliant India” agenda.
On security, CRS points to Indian anger over Trump’s “equal treatment” of Pakistan and his claim to have ended the May conflict, when in Delhi’s telling, the ceasefire owed nothing to Washington.
On technology, the report shows how reduced staffing in Trump’s National Security Council threatens to stall implementation of the TRUST roadmap on AI, semiconductors, and quantum. In defense, it flags both momentum—$24 billion in sales, growing interoperability—and fragility, with the 10-year framework expiring this year and still unresolved. And on immigration, it reminds lawmakers that India is not just a policy partner but a people partner: the single biggest source of H-1Bs, green cards, and foreign students.
The concluding section distils the dilemma for Congress into a set of choices: whether to loosen export controls, resource the Quad, and keep betting on India’s democratic resilience—or let Trump’s instincts on tariffs and Pakistan dictate the shape of America’s India policy.
What Congress Must Decide
CRS closes by laying out the dilemmas now before lawmakers:
- Whether to ease export controls for tech and defense cooperation.
- How to resource the Quad and fit India into US Asia strategy.
- Whether India’s democratic backsliding should affect policy.
- How to balance India’s ties with Russia and Iran against US interests.
The Big Picture
CRS never editorialises. But its message is unmistakable: after two decades of careful bipartisan investment, Trump’s mix of tariffs, boasts, and Pakistan lunches is shredding the credibility of America’s India policy. For Congress, the choice is whether to salvage the partnership or let Trump’s instincts dictate strategy. For India, the warning is even sharper: if this is what friendship looks like, what would betrayal look like?
Start a Conversation
Post comment