Despite debate win, Kamala Harris makes no dent in battleground state although 5+ nationwide

WASHINGTON: The needle has barely moved in the US Presidential election despite the widely perceived view that Kamala Harris trounced Donald Trump in Tuesday's debate. A Reuters/Ipsos polls shows Harris gaining about a point to lead 47-42 nationwide and a Morning Consult survey put her at 50-45, also up a point for her from before the debate. But pollsters say she has barely made a dent in the seven battleground states that will decide the election.

Read also: Kamala Harris campaign calls Trump a ‘chicken’ after he backs out of third debate

Both candidates returned to the campaign trail on Thursday, with Harris clearly energized by positive reviews of her debate performance. But she insisted at a rally in North Carolina, a battleground state, that she remained the underdog in the election and there was much hard work ahead if she is to win, while Trump has suggested his win is a foregone conclusion

Part of Harris' caution is because Trump typically over-performs in elections compared his lower numbers in poll surveys, partly because his voters are either reticent or embarrassed to tell pollsters about their voting intentions. This happened both in 2016 and 2020, and the tight race in 2024 in battleground states -- where there is little daylight between their numbers -- is causing many pollsters, even Democrat-affiliated ones, to be wary of underestimating Trump.

The verdict is rather more clear when it comes to debate performance though, with even Republican-leaning voters acknowledging Trump underperformed, leading the Harris campaign to seek at least one more debate. But Trump rejected the challenge on Thursday, insisting that he had won the debate.

"When a prizefighter loses a fight, the first words out of his mouth are, “I WANT A REMATCH.” Polls clearly show that I won the Debate against Comrade Kamala Harris... and she immediately called for a Second Debate," he said, inviting taunts of cowardice from Harris supporters.

Trump's MAGA flock meanwhile continued to burn with conspiracy theories to explain his debate debacle, from alleging that one of the anchors was Harris's sorority sister who gave her the questions in advance, to Harris being tutored during the debate via earrings with bluetooth capability. Trump himself continued to fume at ABC News' moderators, calling them "nasty and rude" for the way they conducted the debate, which in his view was biased against him.

There was no sign that the debate debacle has any salutary effect on Trump as he continued with his rambling speech template about the illegal immigrant invasion of America. The rants now includes allegations of illegal immigrants eating dogs, cats, and geese, ignoring advice from some of his own supporters that he should eat crow and focus on policy issues where they say Harris is vulnerable.

The contours of a potential confrontation and gridlock on November 5 is already forming with both sides suspiciously eyeing union endorsements for the other side. While Democrats are leery about the Fraternal Order of Police, the country's oldest and largest police labor organization endorsing Trump, MAGA Republicans are agitated about the National Association of Letter Carriers (NALC), the union representing the postal workers, who will handle millions of ballots as part of the mass vote-by-mail system, announcing their support for Harris. Both unions have around 300,000 members each.