Will Trump's security strategy benefit resource-rich Africa?

With the new National Security Strategy, US President Donald Trump is clearly focusing less on development programs for Africa and more on securing access to raw materials and energy projects.

According to the recently published document, the United States intends to work with selected countries in the future to foster "mutually beneficial trade relationships" and to exploit Africa's natural resources and economic potential. It seeks to further develop liquefied petroleum gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) technologies and to apply them in Africa.

So does Trump's plan to treat Africa primarily as a supplier of crucial raw materials in US policy present a new opportunity for development on the continent?




"The National Security Paper treats Africa as a region of low engagement," James Shikwati, a Kenyan economist, told DW. "It is obvious that his strategy runs counter to the aspirations of Africa's regional economic blocs," he said, adding that "the blocs aim to integrate the economies of the regions and allow Africa to act as a single entity."

A recipe for more conflicts over resources

Shikwati emphasized that Trump's approach offered the continent no opportunity for renewal. "If anything, it is likely to increase the number of conflicts, especially those over resources," he explained, pointing to the "emerging powers, the Gulf states, and even the European Union (EU), which are equally interested in these resources."

For her part Ahunna Eziakonwa, the director of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) regional bureau for Africa, sees greater economic cooperation as an opportunity for Africa's growth, provided that it is accompanied by supportive development cooperation. However, there are currently no signs of US development aid, which Trump cut at the beginning of his second term. He has also officially closed down USAID.

For the South Africa-based independent economic analyst Daniel Silke, the current US strategy is a clear restructuring of US policy. "The days when a wide range of products imported into the US benefited across the board from the advantages of AGOA (African Growth and Opportunity Act) are over. At least for the time being," he told DW.

The AGOA trade pact was launched in 2000 and enabled numerous African countries to export their products to the US market duty-free. Former US President Barack Obama viewed AGOA as a key driver of economic growth in Africa and extended it by 10 years in 2015. Donald Trump allowed the program to expire at the end of September 2025.

A debate scheduled for this week in Washington could decide on a three-year extension, but it is questionable whether the previously important partnership with South Africa, for example, will continue, given the significant deterioration in relations between the two countries.

Promoting a free trade zone in Africa

As a possible consequence of Trump's new foreign policy, African countries could try to fill the gap by forming partnerships with other states, Silke said

"Or they could liberalize their own domestic policies, push ahead with the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), and try to increase trade across the continent. And no longer rely on the subsidies and benefits that the US and AGOA used to offer," he added.

The AfCFTA officially entered into force in 2019 but has been slow to take effect. With 54 member states, the African Union project encompasses a huge continental market of over 1.3 billion people. Low tariffs and reduced bureaucracy are intended to boost Africa's industrial development.

For Africa expert Robert Kappel, the US document presents Africa with an urgent task. "For African countries, governments, civil societies, and businesses, President Trump's actions are a real warning shot; make sure you free yourselves from dependencies. From Europe, China, and Russia, and also from dependencies on the US."

Kappel stressed that a decisive factor is Africa's continued industrialization. "It could help if the African Continental Free Trade Area is established, military cooperation is strengthened, and countries seek out various strategic partners," he told DW.

President Trump has often responded with insults toward Africa and African politicians. Now he is "bringing out the whole arsenal of his agenda," Kappel warned, adding that the message is clear: "There will be no more cozying up."



US playing catch-up with China

Geostrategically, Africa plays a key role for the US because China is gaining ground on the continent. The new security strategy raises the possibility of involvement in conflict resolution. But here too, according to Kappel, the focus is on raw materials.

The Great Lakes region is the best example of US power politics: there, Trump is acting as a peacemaker in the military conflict between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

The US negotiated a peace agreement, but fighting continues to break out in the resource-rich eastern Congo. "It's really about the raw materials in Congo, which the Americans would like to control, produce, and export. As always in Trump's politics, it's about self-interest," Kappel said.

Countries opposed to the US, such as South Africa, are being undermined, according to Kappel. "The Chinese have also gained a stronger foothold on the continent militarily, and now the US sees that it must get involved there in order not to leave the continent to China, Russia, and the BRICS countries," he added.

Silke talks of a "race 2.0" over Africa's resources, with global superpowers seeking to consolidate their presence "unless Africans take their destiny into their own hands and resist the power struggle on their continent."