The week that was: US 28-point peace plan for Ukraine revealed; Netanyahu seeks Presidential pardon amid corruption cases

Welcome back to another edition of My Take 5, your weekly round-up of top international news. This week we are again covering the negotiations over the US-sponsored peace proposal to end the Russia-Ukraine war, President Zelenskyy’s chief of staff Andriy Yermak resigning over a corruption probe, China temporarily detaining an Indian citizen from Arunachal Pradesh, the US’s continuing threats against Venezuela, and Netanyahu’s bizarre request for a pardon. So, let’s get to it. Packed week in Ukraine: It has been a busy week in Ukraine with developments on multiple fronts. First, as I wrote about it the previous week, the US’s 28-point peace plan for ending the Russia-Ukraine war finally came to full light. It turned out to be nothing but a Russian wishlist. It called for Ukraine giving up the entire Donbas region, curtailing its military, and forever giving up any hopes of Nato membership – all demands that would be suicidal for Kyiv. The shockingly Russian slant of the plan led to investigations into how it came about. And it appears that one man in the Trump administration is strongly plugging for Russia – adviser Steve Witkoff. The real-estate guy and Trump’s long-time pal has practically become a Russian agent. Bloomberg then broke a conversation that Witkoff had with senior Putin aide Yuri Ushakov just before Zelenskyy’s last visit to the White House in October. That visit was supposed to see Washington greenlight Tomahawk missiles for Kyiv. However, in the leaked audio, Witkoff is heard practically coaching Ushakov on how to change Trump’s mind, and suggest arranging a call between Putin and Trump. And that’s exactly what happened. Putin called Trump just before Zelenskyy arrived at the White House and the Tomahawk deal was off. Separately, another conversation between Ushakov and Russian special envoy Kirill Dmitriev exposed the Russian plan. They discussed informally passing on the Russian plan to end the war to the Americans with maximalist demands. And that is what, in hindsight, happened. Moscow passed on its demands through this informal channel (most likely through Witkoff and his people) which then transformed into the 28-point peace plan that Washington presented to the Ukrainians and Europeans, completely taking them by surprise. Thankfully, further discussions between Washington and Kyiv have reportedly pared down the 28-point plan and inserted Ukraine’s interests into the proposal. In fact, a Ukrainian team is in Washington as I write this to further discuss and fine tune the proposal. That meeting is said to have been described as positive by both sides. But more work needs to be done to flesh out a concrete plan to end the war. That means Russia is not getting a quick, favourable deal, which it may have been hoping for. That in turn is a temporary win for Ukraine. Witkoff will now travel to Moscow again. Hopefully, there won’t be more nasty surprises for Kyiv. Yermak resigns: In a big scalp for Ukraine’s anti-corruption drive, President Zelenskyy’s chief of staff Andriy Yermak resigned after he was searched by Ukraine’s anti-corruption agency NABU in connection with the case involving Ukraine’s energy sector where some people close to the President’s office are accused of distributing contracts in lieu of kickbacks and money laundering. The investigation finally pointed to Yermak, who had come to acquire a very influential position in the Ukrainian administration. In fact, he was seen as Zelenskyy’s go-to man and practically his shadow. However, there have been whispers – unproven so far – that Yermak presides over a vast nepotistic network, parts of which were indulging in graft. As I mentioned in my last weekly wrap, this is part of the old Soviet legacy that burdens Ukraine and which Ukrainians are trying to get rid of. That is what Ukrainian civil society activists and youth are fighting for. That is also what was at the heart of the Euromaidan protests in 2013-14. For, Russia wants this nepotistic, corruption-tainted network to continue in Ukraine so that it can use it to control Kyiv from within. Therefore, this is a huge security risk for Ukraine.It’s welcome that Zelenskyy again reacted quickly to the developments, announced Yermak’s resignation and declared a total reboot of the presidential office. This is very good. Europeans too are happy about this. As Ukraine goes through with very tough negotiations with the US over finding ways to end the Russian invasion, fresh personnel and fresh ideas will hold Zelenskyy in good stead. Sure, this is not an easy job given the circumstances. But Ukraine has the talent.China’s ridiculous claims on Arunachal: In another brazen act of foreign policy aggression, China last week detained for 18 hours an Indian national, Prema Wangjom Thongdok, who was travelling from the UK to Japan via Shanghai on her Indian passport. Authorities at Shanghai airport pulled her aside and reportedly harangued her for her passport because it mentioned she was born in Arunachal Pradesh. The Chinese officials even told her that she should get a Chinese passport because “Arunachal Pradesh was part of China”. Thongdok was finally released after Indian embassy officials in China intervened. But despite a diplomatic protest by India over the incident, China remains defiant. It flatly denied the harassment to Thongdok and reiterated its absurd claim over Arunachal Pradesh, which it calls Zangnan. This clearly shows that China has no intention of maintaining long-term cordial relations with India. The so-called thaw in ties since October last year is nothing but tactical. After all, even during Indian military’s Op Sindoor against Pakistan this summer, it was China that was providing the Pakistanis with real-time battlefield intelligence and other technical support for Pakistan’s Chinese arsenal. So, there is no friendly compact here. Beijing clearly sees New Delhi as a foe that has to be suppressed and controlled. And this is precisely why it keeps raking up the Arunachal issue. The bottomline is India’s and China’s interests don’t align. Beijing sees India as a long-term rival, the only Asian nation that can challenge its rise. Plus, India hosts the Dalai Lama, a sore point for the Chinese that undermines Beijing’s ability to fully assimilate Tibet. So, no matter the spin the Chinese embassy tries to put on the Thongdok incident, China simply can’t be trusted. India needs to make suitable provisions for this reality. US pressure on Venezuela: Washington continues to apply serious military pressure on Venezuela. The US has sent 15,000 troops to the region and more than a dozen warships in what it says is an effort to combat drug trafficking out of Venezuela. In fact, American forces have been targeting alleged drug boats in the Caribbean that have killed more than 80 people. However, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro rejects the allegations. Caracas also hints that the American pressure is actually about driving out Maduro from power and gaining control over Venezuela’s oil.Strategically speaking, Washington could be trying to kill two birds with one stone here. First, appear to act tough against drug trafficking, which is a serious issue for America nonetheless. And second, put pressure on Maduro who is a Putin ally. As things stand, the latter will indirectly put pressure on Moscow. For, the Russians with the war in Ukraine have no spare capacity to deal with Venezuela right now. This is somewhat a replay of what happened in West Asia, where Moscow couldn’t come to the rescue of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad or even aid the Iranians when they were being bombed by Isreal and US. That said, attacking and killing people in boats on the mere suspicion of drug trafficking raises a human rights issue. Surely, there are legal ways of interdicting these boats instead of bombing them.Netanyahu requests pardon: In a bizarre twist, Israel’s Netanyahu requested the Israeli President for a pardon in the ongoing corruption cases against him. Netanyahu is accused of bribery, fraud and breach of trust in three separate cases related to wrongly manipulating the media and receiving gifts in lieu of government favours. Interestingly, Netanyahu has still not admitted his guilt in the cases and now frames the pardon in terms of “fostering national unity” and “healing the rifts” in Israeli society. But pardons are usually given to those who admit their guilt first. That has been the convention in Israel. In fact, this has prompted the Israeli opposition and those against Netanyahu to assert that in case the PM is pardoned he must either accept he is guilty or leave politics permanently. There are many that contend that Netanyahu will certainly see jail time for the corruption cases, and the only thing that was keeping him from that fate was Israel’s war time emergency. Hence, many have said that Netanyahu was intentionally keeping the war going to avoid jail. But with the ceasefire with Hamas in October, and the lifting of the “special situation” status in the south of Israel, circumstances have begun to normalise somewhat. That might explain Netanyahu’s attempt to get a pardon before he is cooked by the Israeli courts.