Kim Jong-un’s decision to name his daughter as his heir will probably trigger a power struggle within his family, a former intelligence official warned.
The North Korean leader, who succeeded his father and grandfather, chose Kim Ju-ae, believed to be 13, to take power when he dies, South Korea’s spy agency told its parliament this week.
Rah Jong-yil, the former South Korean ambassador to the UK and deputy director of Seoul’s intelligence service, told The Telegraph that Ju-ae could face opposition from Kim Yo-jong, her ambitious and ruthless aunt.
Yo-jong, 38, was said to be planning to seize power should the dictator die or be incapacitated. This did not bode well for Ju-ae in a dynasty that had never been shy about assassinating its political rivals, according to Mr Jong-yil.
Ju-ae, the only known child of Kim and his wife Ri Sol-ju, became an increasingly present figure in official appearances, provoking speculation that she was being groomed to succeed her father.
But her aunt, Kim’s sister, had significant political and military support within the Workers’ Party of Korea and was widely seen as the second most powerful person in the country.
“It depends on the timing, but I believe if Kim Yo-jong believed that she had a chance of becoming the top leader then she would take it,” Mr Jong-yil said.
“For her, there are no reasons to refrain from putting into effect her own political project,” he said, adding that a power struggle “is probable”.
Given the family’s track record, any such in-fighting probably would not be bloodless.
Two years after Kim took over from his father in December 2011, he had Jang Song-thaek, his uncle and mentor, arrested on charges of committing “anti-party, counter-revolutionary, factional acts”.
Kim Jong-nam, his older half-brother, who was once seen as a potential future leader, was assassinated in Kuala Lumpur airport in February 2017 when VX nerve agent was smeared in his face. He had been living in Macao after being exiled in 2003.
Ju-ae appeared next to her father at events such as test launches of new ballistic missiles and diplomatic events, which included the military parade in Beijing in September to mark Japan’s defeat in the Second World War.
South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) said it took a “range of circumstances” into account when they claimed that Ju-ae had been selected as his successor, including her “increasingly prominent public presence at official events”.
They said it would be notable if she attended North Korea’s party congress later this month, Pyongyang’s largest political event that took place every five years.
There was widespread speculation over why Kim felt the need to anoint a successor at the age of 42, with rumours that he suffered from a range of medical complaints.
He was reported to be a heavy drinker and smoker, and have diabetes and high blood pressure. He was estimated to weigh around 140kg (22 stones) in 2024.
His own father, Kim Jong-il, suffered from a similar set of illnesses and died of a heart attack aged 70.
A report, published in December on 38 North, the website of the US-based think tank Stimson Centre, warned of “turbulence” in the event of Kim’s sudden demise when laying out possible succession scenarios.
It also highlighted the “high likelihood of a power struggle emerging between Kim Jong-un and his potential successor candidates”.
“In the immediate term, more politically established candidates, like Kim Yo-jong, are more likely to succeed in the event of Kim Jong-un’s sudden death or serious illness”, the report stated.
Other candidates, such as Kim Ju-ae or her siblings, believed to be two boys, “are still too young and unestablished to realistically be considered for succession in the coming five to 15 years”, it added.
“Kim Yo-jong, for example, will be able to immediately outmanoeuvre the others due to the political and military support she has garnered within the [Workers’ Party of Korea],” it concluded.
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