'Highly likely it's espionage': Was the Nobel Peace Prize leaked? Investigators probe possible breach

The Nobel Peace Prize committee said on Saturday that it is looking into online bets that hinted someone knew in advance that María Corina Machado would win.

The Nobel Institute told Norwegian media that the leak was "highly likely" the result of espionage.

By Thursday, wagers predicting Machado's victory began appearing on Polymarket, a popular online prediction platform, pushing her odds above 73 per cent after midnight, as cited by the New York Times.

Is it espionage?

Kristian Berg Harpviken, director of the Nobel Institute, told Norwegian business newspaper Finansavisen that the Nobel Committee is investigating whether a leak influenced trading on Polymarket.

"Highly likely it's espionage," Harpviken told Norway's TV2.

Espionage, Harpviken said, "could make it appear as if someone on the inside deliberately leaked information. That is not likely."

"This has been going on for many decades," Harpviken added.

On Friday, the Nobel Committee’s head said that he did not believe Machado’s name had been leaked.

"I don't think there have ever been any leaks in the entire history of the prize. I can't imagine that's the case," committee chairman Jorgen Watne Frydnes was quoted as saying by NTB news agency.

Prediction markets like Polymarket gained attention during last year’s US presidential campaign, especially after wagers on the election accurately forecasted US President Donald Trump’s victory.

Supporters say these platforms use the knowledge of many speculators, and because people back their predictions with money, they can quickly process lots of information, making the predictions more accurate.

Only a small group has prior knowledge of the Nobel laureate selected by the committee’s five members.