Sharif’s ‘Panama link’ could impact Pakistan’s India policy

Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif flew to London for a “cardiac check-up” on Wednesday fueling wild speculation as he faces the worst crisis of his political career. His departure followed the Panama Papers leak, which confirmed his family owns offshore companies and prime London properties. The revelation has given a fresh handle to Sharif’s rival, Imran Khan, whose 126-day sit-in demanding the prime minister’s removal over alleged poll fraud charges had eventually fizzled out in 2014. Khan sees the leak a godsend opportunity to topple Sharif, whom he accuses of corruption, nepotism and being obsessive about infrastructure while ignoring human development.

Sharif enjoys absolute parliamentary majority and is unlikely to be toppled. Even if he is forced to step down, he is most likely going to hand over the reins to some family member. The military is unlikely to step in as it enjoys levers of power without responsibility. Army chief Raheel Sharif by far outshines the prime minister in terms of popularity with the perceived success in Pakistan’s war on terror. Sharif has won over vocal and influential liberals with his reformist policies, pro-women and minority welfare schemes. The liberals are an important factor since they control the English press and are taken seriously in the west, which plays a role in making and unmaking governments in Islamabad.

Even if he survives, Sharif is likely to emerge weaker. This would have a considerable impact on Pakistan’s India policy. Despite the powerful military establishment’s displeasure, Sharif has continued his conciliatory policy with Delhi in his third term. Sharif’s policy dates back to the 1990s when he first developed a rapport with Prime Minister I K Gujral. Punjabi sentimentalities bonded the two. Gujral was born in Jhelum in Pakistani Punjab while Sharif’s family maintains close links with the village near Amritsar, from where they had migrated to Pakistan in 1947. The Sharifs have created a replica of the village near Lahore, where Prime Minister Narendra Modi was hosted during his impromptu visit to Pakistan in December.

Sharif’s bonding with Gujral coincided with the pragmatic businessman-politician’s economic liberalisation policy, which required him to build bridges with India. By the end of the decade, he gambled by inviting Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee to Lahore and signing the 1999 Lahore declaration. The move backfired. Army chief Pervez Musharraf took exception to Kashmir’s exclusion from the declaration. He plotted the Kargil offensive to undermine the peace process before deposing Sharif months later. Sharif was thrown into the notorious Attock prison before he chose exile after 14-month imprisonment.

As Sharif returned to Pakistan ahead of the 2008 election on Musharraf’s watch, his party promised “to accord special priority’’ to a peaceful settlement of issues with India in its manifesto. As an opposition leader, he favoured visa-free travel for Indians and unilateral Siachen Glacier demilitarisation in May 2008. Sharif’s party went on to propose to link India with Afghanistan besides energy-rich Central Asia via the Pakistani territory five years later. The proposal was unprecedented as Pakistan sees any Indian presence in Afghanistan as destabilising.

Sharif called his landslide electoral victory in 2013 a vindication of his India policy and a mandate for building bridges. He called peaceful relation with India the “cardinal principle” of his foreign policy in his 2014 Independence Day speech. Sharif had earlier enraged hawks by attending Modi’s inauguration and snubbing Kashmiri separatists during his visit to Delhi.

Sharif’s detractors say his business interests and that of his industrialist supporters drive his India policy. They seek parity with India and do not like Sharif’s bending over backwards approach. That the Panama Papers leak has touched a raw never and confirmed the worst fears about politicians, the military establishment may have finally found a reason to further clip Sharif’s wings.