Another crisis brewing? Pakistan on brink of food supply collapse as flour shortage deepens; prices hit the roof

Pakistan’s twin cities are staring at a worsening flour emergency after the Punjab food department halted wheat supplies to mills in Rawalpindi and Islamabad, triggering panic across markets and raising questions over the country’s fragile food security. The sudden suspension has deepened an already tense economic climate, with transport blockades, water shortages and declining dam levels all feeding fears of another nationwide crisis.

Dealers say all existing orders for flour, wheat and fine flour were cancelled from Friday night, leaving shops and tandoor owners without stock, PTI reported citing the The Express Tribune.

The Rawalpindi Flour Mills Association, which held an emergency meeting to address the crisis, warned that “production will remain paralysed” unless wheat permits are restored immediately. The association described the ban as “ill-considered” and cautioned that shortages could spiral into a humanitarian emergency in the federal capital and adjoining regions.

Prices surge, tandoors punished

Flour inflation has shot up at record pace, prompting anger from bakers and retailers. According to the Pakistan Naanbai Association, the price of a 79-kilogram sack of red flour has doubled to PKR 11,000 since the Shehbaz Sharif–Maryam Nawaz government took office. Fine flour, used widely for bread and bakery items, has risen from PKR 6,200 to PKR 12,600.

The association’s president, Shafiq Qureshi, accused authorities of “state oppression”, claiming that dozens of tandoors have been demolished and nearly a hundred sealed for selling roti at higher prices in line with rising flour rates. Many owners have been fined between PKR 25,000 and PKR 50,000. “Instead of fixing the wheat supply, they are taking out their frustration on us,” Qureshi said, warning that families are being pushed to breaking point as bread becomes increasingly unaffordable.

Trade paralysis and a deepening food crisis

While wheat supply chokes Punjab’s food chain, Pakistan’s transport routes are already gridlocked due to deteriorating relations with Afghanistan. Thousands of trucks carrying food items, pharmaceuticals and export consignments for Afghanistan and Central Asia have been stranded at ports and highways.

Senior Vice Chairman of the Goods Transport Association Imdad Hussain Naqvi said drivers are stuck without food, water or security. “This is not just a loss for transporters; it's a loss for the entire state,” he said, as quoted by PTI. He further warned that perishable goods are rotting on highways and thousands of workers are on the brink of starvation.

Water shortage adds to worries – dams running dry

The current wheat crisis comes months after India regulated flows from the Chenab following the Pahalgam terror attack. The move had contributed to a sharp drop in water levels at the country’s two key dams, Mangla and Tarbela.

Pakistan is among six countries with the highest levels of inefficient agricultural water use, worsening freshwater losses amid arid conditions, according to the World Bank’s first global water monitoring report, Continental Drying: A Threat to Our Common Future.

The study highlights that inefficient irrigation in drying regions—particularly in Pakistan, Algeria, Cambodia, Mexico, Thailand, Tunisia, and Romania—drives massive water waste, with more than two-thirds linked to water-intensive crops.

(With inputs from agencies)