ISIS chief Baghdadi urges Muslims to join jihad

NEW DELHI: In May, 2015, Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi sent out a message to his followers from around the world. In the recording, issued by its al-Furqan media outlet Baghdadi says: "There is no excuse for any Muslim not to migrate to the Islamic State ... Joining (its fight) is a duty on every Muslim. We are calling on you either join or carry weapons (to fight) wherever you are."
In the past weeks, as Russian jets have pounded anti-Assad positions in Aleppo and other parts of Syria, US stepped up its attacks on IS’ infrastructure like its oil wells, and the Kurds Peshmerga taken back Sinjar from the IS, it might seem that IS has been on the backfoot.The purported death of Jihadi John could have signaled real progress against one of the biggest global threats of our time.
The horrific terror attacks in Paris belie any such expectation. Yet the implications of this attack for global security and strategic policies will be immense. There are three strands that will be followed in the coming weeks and months.
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First, this will be a severe blow to European refugee policies. Both Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande have gone counter to mainstream opinion to welcome refugees fleeing fighting in Syria. However the rush has spooked many countries – while strapped economies of Greece and Italy have taken the brunt, Hungary has closed its border with Croatia, Slovenia is closing its borders as are other possible entrypoints.
More than 464,000 migrants have crossed into Europe by sea for the first nine months of 2015. Only half of the refugees are Syrians – rest are from Eritrea, Darfur, Afghanistan, Pakistan even Nigeria. Merkel is already under pressure, and if its true that one of the terrorists in Paris was heard shouting he was Syrian, the pressure will intensify. The Schengen system, already under stress after the Greek crisis, is fraying at the seams and appears unlikely to survive. France has reportedly suspended the Schengen agreement for the time being. They will be followed by others.
Riots have broken out in many parts of Sweden (on November 12, Sweden imposed border controls) between immigrants, refugees and Swedes fuelling anger on both sides – there have been attacks on immigrant schools, while refugees have burnt cars and rioted for better employment prospects. Poland and Switzerland have both imposed their own version of controls. The big losers from yesterday are migrants and refugees, who will find the coming more and more difficult.
Europe has to deal more comprehensively with the fact that hundreds of their citizens are foreign fighters with ISIS. France still tops the list, though the presence of Dutch, Swedish and Norwegians fighting in IS has increased.
Netherlands has taken a tough stand on jihadism after two of their citizens, Sultan Berzel and Omar Yilmaz were seen to be prominent members of IS, having traveled from Europe (later this number was revised to 200 joining IS). The Dutch have developed what they call “An Integrated Approach to Jihadism” intended to protect Netherlands and prevent radicalization. As the French are learning, it’s easier said.
Evolution of the IS
The Paris attacks had that eerie déjà vu of Mumbai 26/11. It was only a matter of time before the model was replicated. The same modus operandi – attacking unarmed civilians in places where they would be most vulnerable like concert halls, football stadiums and restaurants, using low tech – AK-47s, IEDs and suicide vests – but creating massive impact.
Which brings us to how IS’ methods might have evolved. Until recently, IS confined its attacks to Syria and Iraq, trying to take territory, through acts of immense brutality. In the past month though, IS appears to have taken lessons from Al Qaeda’s playbook, moving to big ticket, spectacular attacks. IS-Sinai allegedly brought down the Metrojet airplane killing 224, bomb attack in Ankara, suicide attack in Beirut a couple of days ago killed 46 and now Paris.
Clearly targeting countries that have joined the anti-IS coalition, IS has promised equally spectacular attacks in Russia. Taken together with Baghdadi’s exhortation to his followers to take up arms wherever they are, it could imply a turn in their evolution. It could also be an effect of the sustained air strikes against their facilities in Iraq and Syria.
A more terrifying prospect was recently shown by Jurgen Todenhofer, formerly with Merkel’s team, he quit to become a war correspondent and spent 10 days with ISIS under the watchful eye of Jihadi John. In his subsequent book “House of War”, he writes, “The terrorists plan on killing several hundred million people. The West is drastically underestimating the power of ISIS.” He says they plan a “nuclear tsunami” against the West. “Only Arabs can stop them.”
Which leads to the last strand, the peace process in Syria, where for the first time, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Russia, Turkey and US are trying to work out a peace solution in Vienna. The talks are not going well, and the Paris attacks may bring an urgency that the multiple rivalries between the countries can be overcome.
Oddly, Assad now feels strengthened – not only are Russian airstrikes against rebel positions helping him, the US airstrikes against IS infrastructure like their oilfields are making comebacks and recoveries difficult for IS. Kurdish Peshmerga have retaken Sinjar in the past days, which is a setback. In addition, the anti-Assad rebel alliance Jaish-al Fateh (supported by Saudis, Kuwait and Qatar) including Jubhat al Nusra, Jund al Aqsa are fraying with members actually leaving. This too helps Assad.
Turkey, US and Saudi Arabia are bitterly opposed to Assad and want him out. But continuing attacks by IS might tilt the balance in Assad’s favour as the lesser of the two evils. Paris attacks might spur a decision during the ongoing G-20 summit.