5 ways 6 months of Ukraine war changed our world

The world in early February was a vastly different place than it is today. Most of us then still believed that Russia was a military superpower, that the US would step in to stop a war anywhere in the world, that commercial considerations would trump all other concerns, and that in 2022, no war would go on for half a year with no end in sight.All our (perhaps naive) assumptions have been overturned. Russia has not given up its aggression, the West’s reliance on economic sanctions has been shown up and the corporate world has proved to be the unlikely hero with principles.Two months into what started as a “conflict”, escalated into “aggression” and finally “war”, we had discussed 10 ways in which the world had changed because of war. medium9385036910 ways the Ukraine war changed the world medium93850378It’s now six months since Russia began its offensive in Ukraine. Has anything changed beyond what we had discussed four months ago? Here are five geopolitical, social and economic changes that have taken place in six months of war.India’s closest ally is closer to its biggest foeRussia and China have historically not been the best of friends. Sure, they haven’t been enemies, but there’s never been a marked cordiality in their relations. Till now. Surprisingly, it wasn’t the war that caused these two huge powers to combine forces; an entente seemed to be in the works shortly before the pandemic when Russia and China markedly stepped up their military cooperation.China and Russia share a long land border, so an understanding between these two powers means they can relax somewhat when it comes to securing that border. And that means troops can be deployed elsewhere — in China’s case near the India border and in Russia’s case to Ukraine. medium93851168This is not good news for India, which has a long and cordial relationship with Russia and guarded — sometimes hostile — ties with China. Russia is a key ally for India, especially at the United Nations. It has also traditionally been a major supplier of weapons to India and has now emerged as a significant supplier of oil.A Russia-China rapprochement could strain India’s ties with Russia. Russia is now trying to smoothen things out and plans to host war games in which both India and China will participate.Oil, airfares and food get dearerRussia is the third-largest producer and second-largest exporter of crude oil. When the West imposed economic sanctions on Russia, it was expected that Russia’s economy would take a beating. Which it did — for a short while. And then energy hungry nations such as India and China began importing more fuel from Russia.According to The New York Times, “As Russia tries to break the stranglehold of sanctions, China and India are emerging as Moscow’s pivotal financiers by purchasing large amounts of Russian crude, putting themselves in the middle of the messy war with Ukraine and a geopolitical standoff with the West.”But if India is buying cheaper oil, why are we still paying more when we fill our cars or buy flight tickets? That’s because prices in India are linked to international benchmarks and not on the price at which refiners buy oil. Which means that as long as international oil prices are high — which they are largely due to the shortage of Russian oil — we will pay more for fuel. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r When oil costs more, aviation fuel naturally costs more too. Also, various countries have barred Russian planes from their airspace — and Russia has reciprocated. So, specific airlines take longer routes, leading to more fuel being consumed, leading to higher airfares.It’s not just crude oil that’s hit by the war. Ukraine was the world’s largest exporter of sunflower oil till the war hit exports. Between them, Russia and Ukraine accounted for the bulk of the world’s sunflower oil production. India relies on imports to meet local demand for cooking oil, specifically sunflower oil. With both Russian and Ukrainian exports hit, cooking oil in India has become expensive.Wheat has also been hit hard, though, unlike sunflower oil, India does produce a significant quantity of wheat. Between them, Russia and Ukraine accounted for a bulk of global wheat supplies, and the war has disrupted that.The corporate sector has entered the arenaSome kinds of companies have always been involved in conflicts and wars — defence manufacturers, mining firms and oil companies, to name the more obvious. But rarely have retail multinationals got involved in politics or conflict. Except now.When Russia went to war against Ukraine, large multinational chains began leaving the country — McDonald’s, Starbucks, Heineken, Nike, Nokia, Renault and dozens of others shut shop in Russia and, in some cases, stopped stocking goods from Russia. Companies such as Apple, Amazon, 3M, Citi, Decathlon, GM and others have suspended operations but have left a door open in case they wish to return. medium93853243But for now, the corporate world seems to have turned its back on Russia, punishing it for its aggression in Ukraine. A full (and constantly updated by the Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute) list of companies that have left Russia and those that are staying on is here.In effect, the private sector is doing what governments are unable to do — punishing Russia. And in doing so, they have become the unlikely heroes of this war.Nato has become much biggerRussian President Vladimir Putin claimed that the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato) expansion had forced him to protect Russia’s interests by invading Ukraine. Nato has categorically denied this here.Meanwhile, Russia’s aggression in the region has had the very opposite effect on countries in the region; they want to join Nato instead of shunning it for the fear of Russia. Sweden and Finland have both asked to join Nato, though their admission could take time. medium93851136 medium93851149Is the US no longer the world's saviour?Since February, while most global attention has been on the impact of the war on Russia, Ukraine and the world, a small part of the global policy community has been focused on China and Taiwan. Most policy wonks dismissed any parallels being drawn between Ukraine and Taiwan, saying that things are not the same.However, an active campaign by the Chinese state (aided by a fake news army on social media) seems to suggest that China has been promoting the message that Taiwan cannot look to the West for help in case of a Chinese invasion. The US, particularly, did not come to the defence of Ukraine, say these messages. It will as easily abandon Taiwan, they add.Matters are still fraught when it comes to Taiwan, but it’s clear that Xi Jinping could take a leaf out of Putin’s war playbook. The result could change the world map as we know it. medium93851531Why Odesa is the prize Putin wants, no matter what medium93851538