Turkey's hazelnut frost threatens chocolate supply chains

We've grown accustomed to supermarket shortages, from toilet paper during COVID-19 to sunflower oil amid the Ukraine war and eggs during bird flu outbreaks.

The latest casualty is the hazelnut, due to a rare and devastating frost in April in Turkey, the world's largest supplier, and ongoing climate change pressures.

Since April, hazelnut prices have jumped over 35%, as exporters rushed to buy up the more limited supply. At one point, Turkish hazelnut futures prices exceeded 200 lira ($4.91, €4.22) per kilogram, with predictions of $10 per kilo internationally.

This shortfall is set to hit sweet tooths hard, as the cost of Nutella, the beloved chocolate-hazelnut spread, faces sharp price increases, along with other chocolates and baked goods.

Nutella's hazelnut headache

Although hazelnuts don't get much attention, they are a key ingredient in many premium and mass market products. The stakes are high for brands like Ferrero, which makes Nutella and reportedly uses around a quarter of the world's hazelnut supply.

Nutella consists mainly of sugar and palm oil, but hazelnuts make up about 13% of the recipe. Millions of jars of the chocolate spread are sold annually, meaning even small price rises drive up production costs and squeeze margins.

If sustained, the hazelnut shortage may force Ferrero and other producers to reformulate the recipes for their sweet treats. Confectioners could potentially be forced to shrink product sizes or pass costs onto consumers just as the popular festive period draws closer.

Ferrero's roots are in Italy's Piedmont region, where high-quality Tonda Gentile hazelnuts are grown. In addition to Italy, Ferrero sources hazelnuts annually from Turkey, Chile and the United States.

The Italian food giant also makes Ferrero Rocher, Kinder Bueno and Mon Cheri Hazelnut chocolates, among others, which all contain the nut.

The company played down concerns about shortages in a statement to DW, saying: "The Ferrero Group diversifies sourcing from multiple origins worldwide and, thanks to its long-term strategy, Ferrero does not expect any supply disruptions for its products."

The firm said its sourcing strategy ensured "a consistent year-round supply."

How bad is the Hazelnut shortfall?

Estimates from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) in June put the 2025 crop at 520,000 metric tons, versus the roughly 750,000 tons expected initially, although it was later revised up.

The International Nut & Dried Fruit Council (INC) told DW that the frost in Turkey had cut the hazelnut crop forecast by nearly 22% to about 601,000 tons in-shell, citing a more optimistic projection from the Black Sea Exporters' Association (KiB).

According to INC, the latest estimate suggests the country lost about 167,000 tons to the frost, compared to initial fears of nearly 250,000.

Fortunately, Turkey held back some of its 2022 crop — around 150,000 metric tons, INC said, which has now been exhausted. This should help reduce the shortfall.

Hazelnuts are harvested annually, typically in late summer. However, in years of surplus, Turkey often stores excess crops for future sale as farmers anticipate higher prices.

Confectioners seek other supplies
Corporate buyers are now looking to Chile, Georgia, and the US to reduce reliance on Turkey, but are also secretly hoping that prices stabilize if the 2025 Turkish crop is better than feared.

"The hazelnut harvest in Turkey will begin on August 10 and is expected to be completed around mid-September," the German confectioners' association BDSI told DW in a written statement. BDSI said it would only be able to assess the impact once the harvest was over.

Other hazelnut growing regions also face challenges. Chile and Georgia produce far less than Turkey, and US hazelnuts, mainly from Oregon, differ in flavor. Scaling up production elsewhere takes years, as hazelnut trees take 5-7 years to mature, limiting short-term relief.

Some believe Turkey's delay in announcing a base hazelnut price last year also left a vacuum that was filled by speculators and exporters. The KiB traditionally sets a price floor at the beginning of the harvest to stabilize the market and guide farmer expectations.

But the lack of a base price amplified shortage fears, drove up prices and triggered panic buying. Sensing an opportunity to profit, farmers withheld stock, further tightening supply.

Changing climate could normalize shortages

The shortage also exposes a more profound vulnerability: the fragility of crop-dependent sectors to the effects of climate change.

Hazelnuts are particularly sensitive to spring frosts, and this year's cold snap in Turkey is a stark reminder of how the climate crisis doesn't just mean heat but unpredictability.

Coffee and cocoa have recently faced climate-related disruptions. The hazelnut shortage has forced confectioners to rethink sourcing and ingredients for their sweet treats.

Experts have warned that erratic weather could become more frequent, threatening hazelnuts, almonds and walnuts.