'I don't see Russia being serious about negotiations': Estonia's permanent secretary general of ministry of defence Kaimo Kuusk

Trump and Putin are slated to meet in Alaska on Aug 15 to try and facilitate a ceasefire in the Ukraine war. However, many in Ukraine and Europe remain sceptical that the Alaksa talks will yield anything substantial since neither Zelenskyy nor European representatives are going to be present. Estonia, a frontline state in the Baltics, has stakes in this war. Kaimo Kuusk, Estonia's permanent secretary general of ministry of defence, who was also Estonia's ambassador to Ukraine, spoke to Rudroneel Ghosh during a visit to Tallinn in May, about the trajectory of the war, Russia’s gameplan and Nato's startegy for the future:

Do you think a ceasefire could be achieved in Ukraine in the near future?
Not on equal terms because Russia is not negotiation on goodwill. From our own Estonian experience we know that Russia is a chronic liar. It just doesn’t stick to international treaties. From our independence 100 years ago, they started to violate the treaty almost immediately. In this case as well, I was in Ukraine as ambassador so I saw the Minsk agreements, the Normandy format of negotiations, and how Russia played with the process and did not respect any of the truce agreements. So I don’t see Russia being serious in negotiations. The only way to get fair peace for Ukraine is through additional pressure on Russia. Only when Russia understands that time is not on their side and the cost of aggression will rise on the frontline through military aid for Ukraine – which Estonia is giving – and through sanctions and economic pressure on Moscow, will there be any results.

What do you make of drones in this war?
The role of drones in modern warfare is definitely one of the key lessons of Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine. Different drone types have different tasks, so they have brought almost limitless combinations for their use on the battlefield. Staying ahead of developments is now more important than ever.


Do you have any evidence that Russia is planning a physical attack against Estonia in the near future?
We in Estonia through our intelligence work have been able to obtain information about Russia’s military plans – separate from defence plans – against the West. They have actually had those plans for years, from the 1990s. This is nothing new for us. We know what we should be prepared for. We know what to expect. But if you are asking whether we have an imminent, clear and present danger, then I am saying no. Because we are well prepared. We are in Nato. And Russian manpower and military equipment are being destroyed on the Ukrainian front because Ukrainians are defending their own country ferociously. But as I mentioned, if Russia gets peace on their terms, the situation beyond our border can start to change rather rapidly.

It seems that Russia is testing Nato’s resolve to invoke Article 5 or even Article 4 through tactics below a certain threshold across the region. Has Nato responded to these sufficiently?
Outside Ukraine, we have reacted absolutely well. Measures for vessels in the Baltic Sea, to protect undersea infra, our intel services are working well together to catch and thwart saboteurs targeting assets on Western soil. How to measure how successful we have been? Well, we are living in peace.

With fears lingering that Trump might completely pull US support for Ukraine, do you think European members of Nato can step up and fill that gap?
US support for Ukraine has been absolutely important throughout the years of Russian aggression. I think US has seen, as we all, that this aggression has connections to other regions as well. Russia is supported by China, and we are already in Asia with that connection. So, if we want to face the threats in the Indo-Pacific region, then we have to deal with this aggression in Ukraine as well. You can’t just ignore and leave saying now I am going to fire fight the fire at the other side of the house although the fire is still burning on this side of the building. So, it’s logical that we continue to support Ukraine collectively.

Which also makes it clear that Europe needs to do more. To not only invest in our own defence but also help Ukraine more. If we are talking about possible security guarantees – again, I would continue to say never trust Russia – for peace then Kyiv’s allies and friends from different regions need to do more. Estonia is ready to allocate also military units, which will be relevant to our compact size. We will be inside those forces because what is happening in Ukraine is important for security in our region

Russia and China seem to have formed an unbreakable compact. What is Europe’s gameplan for Beijing?
Well, it’s not unbreakable. I sometimes compare it to interests of criminal activists. When their interests are matching, then they cooperate. When one of the group members feels that the leader is not suitable anymore, a struggle can start among them. I think we in Europe have become more realistic about looking on China and that will also shape our foreign policy in the future.