Russian troops are advancing their operations in the northern Ukrainian region of Sumy. Ukraine's regional military administration has confirmed that four settlements on the border have come under Russian control.
Prior to this, the Ukrainian army had almost completely withdrawn from the parts of the Russian region of Kursk it had been occupying since August last year. Russia then intensified its shelling of Ukrainian border areas, with Ukrainian authorities ordering the evacuation of 11 villages as a result.
In late May, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed that Russia was preparing an offensive in the Sumy region. He said that Moscow had concentrated its "largest, strongest forces" on the Kursk front, and that troops continued to amass near the border. He added that over 50,000 troops were already at the Sumy front, but that Russia did not have the capacity to establish any sort of "buffer zone" 10 kilometres (6.2 miles) into Ukrainian territory.
Not the first time Putin announces a 'buffer zone'
Mykhailo Samus, a military expert and director of the New Geopolitics Research Network, believes that the fears triggered by Russian President Vladimir Putin's recent statements on establishing a "buffer zone" in Ukraine are "exaggerated." He told DW it was not the first time that Russia had announced such intentions.
"There are no buffer zones there, and there won't be any. There are repeated Russian attempts to attack Ukrainian territory," Samus said. "One year ago, they tried to attack the entire Kharkiv region. They penetrated six or seven kilometres deep into the area around the town of Vovchansk. A year later, we can see that [the troops' advance] stopped there."
Ukraine and Russia trying to capture advantageous positions
The expert pointed out that Ukraine's forces army had also made advances into the Russian regions of Belgorod and Kursk. "Both the Ukrainian and Russian armed forces are trying to capture the most advantageous positions in the border area, from which they can carry out shelling and maintain operational control," he explained. This was especially important for "the conduct of subsequent operations, that is, to occupy high ground, take advantage of geographical features, and prepare as effectively as possible for further developments."
According to his estimation, Russia does not currently have enough troops near the border to advance deep into unoccupied Ukrainian territory. He added that the occupation of parts of the region around Sumy did not yet give Moscow a tactical advantage.
"[Russian forces] will try to move towards favourable heights," he said. "The Ukrainian army knows this, and will take action against them."
Is Russia trying to capture Yunakivka?
According to Ruslan Mykula, the co-founder of the independent Ukrainian intelligence service DeepState UA, the current Russian territorial gains around Sumy are not yet a "great success" considering the superiority of their troops in terms of numbers. At the same time, he told DW, there is still a risk of further advances by Russian troops farther into the Sumy region, even if the Ukrainian defence forces "have already learned to fight against a superior enemy." In his opinion, the Russians' main target is the strategically important village of Yunakivka.
He said that this would clear the way into a large adjacent forest area. "If they advance into the forest, it will cause a lot of problems. Whoever has the larger infantry has a significant advantage here."
He added that the occupation of Yunakivka would create new hazards for the civilian population, as Russia would then be able to launch First Person View (FPV) drone attacks on Sumy's city centre from there. "We could experience a situation such as in Kherson, Nikopol or Kostyantynivka, where the Russians have used such drones to hit buses and civilian trucks. That is why we must not allow the enemy to reach Yunakivka," Mykula warned.
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