India’s growth engine is slowing just as global risks intensify. According to India Ratings & Research, GDP growth could ease to around 6.9 percent in the next fiscal year as trade barriers rise, climate risks loom and global volatility deepens. Chief Economist Devendra Kumar Pant highlighted that these projections remain fluid, especially with the upcoming revision of India’s GDP base year. Consumption demand continues to drive growth, supported by rural spending, but risks are emerging. A potential El Nino event in 2026 could hit farm output and dampen consumption momentum. Pant also flagged rising global tariffs as the biggest threat, warning that sustained high tariffs could force India to deploy fresh growth-support measures. On the fiscal front, tax revenues may undershoot budget estimates by nearly Rs 2 lakh crore, while external balances remain under pressure. Credit growth is picking up, but deposit growth is lagging. As India pushes trade agreements and debates customs duty reforms, the economy stands at a crossroads where global policy shifts could decisively shape growth outcomes in 2026.